Measurement and Assessment of Precarious Employment of University Graduates for the Regional Labour Market

Abstract

In rapidly changing societies, where economic integration and the digitalization of labor relations are accelerating, the socio-economic position of young professionals in the labor market is increasingly viewed through the lens of their human capital. The pace of technological advancement highlights the need for innovative tools to evaluate the stability of youth employment in the face of external influences. This study examines university graduates’ adaptation to the evolving labor market. The study aims to assess the risk of university graduates entering precarious employment, with a focus on their educational background. Sociological data were collected six months after respondents’ graduation from a major Russian university (n = 7,706), based on six annual cross-sectional surveys conducted from 2017 to 2022 using a unified methodology. Results revealed a rising trend in precarious employment among young workers in the Ural Federal District, reaching 38.7 % in 2022. An innovative algorithm, developed by using an indicative approach and mathematical methods such as the Cobb-Douglas production function, was applied to calculate precarious employment risks based on data from 2017–2021 (n=6,500). These risks were found to vary depending on graduates’ educational levels and majors. The study offers practical tools to expand the understanding of precarious employment characteristics and to identify such risks across various professions, providing valuable insights for policy-making in the sphere of labor market regulation and employment strategies.