Demographic Patterns Across Settlement Types in the Russian North

Abstract

The distribution of settlements in the Russian North has significant geopolitical implications, affecting connectivity, border security, and defence. Settlement size also determines the ability to provide essential services, such as healthcare and education, to the population. Despite this, there is a prevailing view that most northern settlements have limited demographic prospects. This article examines the demographic potential of urban and rural settlements with differing demographic dynamics and explores its dependence on population size. Specifically, the study analyses patterns of population reproduction, including birth and death rates, across urban and municipal districts as well as settlements of various sizes. The authors hypothesize that smaller settlements may have demographic advantages in certain indicators. Analysing births and deaths from 2014 to 2023 across 1,297 municipalities (24,500 data points in total), the study used age-standardized indicators combined with spatial and cartographic methods. Results indicate that birth rates in districts and urban settlements show little dependence on population size, whereas in rural settlements, smaller communities tend to have higher birth rates. Mortality, on the contrary, exhibits a consistent pattern across all settlement types: smaller populations are associated with higher mortality. The study concludes that if preserving the entire settlement network is unfeasible, priority should be given to municipalities demonstrating the most favourable demographic dynamics, ensuring territorial connectivity, cultural diversity, and the preservation of areas inhabited by indigenous peoples and long-term residents. Future research should consider the age structure and migration processes in settlements of different types.