Анализ миграции с помощью вычислимых моделей общего равновесия: библиометрический подход
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2025-1-11Ключевые слова:
модель общего равновесия, рынок труда, издержки миграции, производительность, издержки торговли, внутренняя миграция, внешняя миграцияАннотация
Вычислимые модели общего равновесия широко используются для анализа влияния миграции на макроэкономические показатели как в странах происхождения, так и в странах назначения. В свете противоречивых результатов, полученных в рамках модельного подхода в данной статье ставится задача систематизировать опыт построения CGE-моделей миграции. Методология исследования включает библиометрический анализ с комплексной гуманитарной экспертизой. В последние годы CGE-модели стали популярным инструментом в изучении последствий миграции. Исследования, использующие этот подход, хорошо представлены в престижных журналах и имеют высокий уровень цитируемости. Обзор литературы показывает, что многие модели миграции основаны на моделях торговли, которые включают реалистичные предположения о распределении технологий между странами. Географические особенности населенных пунктов также играют решающую роль в распространении эффектов миграции. В то время как в странах назначения часто фиксируется связь между миграцией и улучшением благосостояния в регионах, в странах происхождения эмиграция может привести к снижению производительности из-за оттока рабочей силы. В целом, в странах с положительной чистой миграцией снижение миграционных барьеров приводит к повышению производительности труда и благосостояния граждан. Влияние миграции на уровень зарплат может зависеть и от доли высококвалифицированных и низкоквалифицированных мигрантов. Перспективным направлением дальнейших исследований является построение CGE-моделей для развивающихся стран, учитывающих такие параметры, как уровень социальной напряженности и гетерогенность фирм.
Библиографические ссылки
Acemoglu, D., Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G. H., & Price, B. (2016). Import competition and the great US employment sag of the 2000s. Journal of Labor Economics, 34 (S1), S141–S198. https://doi.org/10.1086/682384
Anderson, J. E. (2011). The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics, 3 (1), 133–160. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-111809-125114
Aubry, A., Burzyński, M., & Docquier, F. (2016). The welfare impact of global migration in OECD countries. Journal of International Economics, 101, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.03.005
Autor, D. H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2013). The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States. American economic review, 103 (6), 2121–2168. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.6.2121
Biavaschi, C., Burzyński, M., Elsner, B., & Machado, J. (2020). Taking the skill bias out of global migration. Journal of Development Economics, 142, 102317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.12.006
Bondarenko N. A. (2022). Labor migration as a socio-economic phenomenon. Gumanitarnye, sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie i obshchestvennye nauki [Humanities, social-economic and social sciences], (4), 191–193. https://doi.org/10.23672/n4800-7132-4878-x (in Russ.)
Borjas, G. J. (2014). Immigration economics. Harvard University Press. https://doi.org/10.4159/harvard.9780674369900
Bryan, G., & Morten, M. (2019). The aggregate productivity effects of internal migration: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Political Economy, 127 (5), 2229–2268. https://doi.org/10.1086/701810
Buonanno, L. (2017). The European migration crisis. In The European Union in Crisis (pp. 100–130). https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-60427-9_6
Caliendo, L., Dvorkin, M., & Parro, F. (2019). Trade and labor market dynamics: General equilibrium analysis of the china trade shock. Econometrica, 87 (3), 741–835. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA13758
Cardoso, M. (2020). The welfare impact of migration with endogenous cross-border movement: An application to the European Union. Economic Modelling, 93, 205–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.08.004
Castles, S. (2019). Why migration policies fail 1. In Celebrating 40 Years of Ethnic and Racial Studies (pp. 300–320). Routledge. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781351171489-21/migration-policies-fail-1-stephen-castles (Date of access: 22.07.2024)
Chakrabarti, A. S., & Sengupta, A. (2017). Productivity differences and inter-state migration in the U.S.: A multilateral gravity approach. Economic Modelling, 61, 156–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.12.009
Chan, K. W. (2010). The household registration system and migrant labor in China: Notes on a debate. Population and development review, 36 (2), 357–364. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00333.x
Chan, K. W. (2012). Migration and development in China: trends, geography and current issues. Migration and Development, 1 (2), 187–205. https://doi.org/10.1080/21632324.2012.739316
Chan, K. W. (2013). China: internal migration. The encyclopedia of global human migration. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444351071.wbeghm124
Costinot, A., & Rodríguez-Clare, A. (2014). Trade theory with numbers: Quantifying the consequences of globalization. In Handbook of international economics (Vol. 4, pp. 197–261). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-54314-1.00004-5
De Haas, H., Czaika, M., Flahaux, M. L., Mahendra, E., Natter, K., Vezzoli, S., & Villares-Varela, M. (2019). International migration: Trends, determinants, and policy effects. Population and Development review, 45 (4), 885–922. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12291
Desmet, K., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2014). Spatial development. American Economic Review, 104 (4), 1211–1243. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.4.1211
Desmet, K., Nagy, D. K., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2017). Asia’s Geographic Development. Asian Development Review, 34 (2), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00093
Desmet, K., Nagy, D. K., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2018). The geography of development. Journal of Political Economy, 126 (3), 903–983. https://doi.org/10.1086/697084
Dhingra, S., Huang, H., Ottaviano, G., Paulo Pessoa, J., Sampson, T., & Van Reenen, J. (2017). The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects. Economic Policy, 32 (92), 651–705. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eix015
Di Giovanni, J., Levchenko, A. A., & Ortega, F. (2015). A global view of cross-border migration. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13 (1), 168–202. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12110
Docquier, F., Kone, Z. L., Mattoo, A., & Ozden, C. (2019). Labor market effects of demographic shifts and migration in OECD countries. European economic review, 113, 297–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.11.007
Doomernik, J., & Bruquetas-Callejo, M. (2016). National immigration and integration policies in Europe since 1973. In B. Garcés-Mascareñas, R. Penninx (Eds.), Integration processes and policies in Europe: Contexts, levels and actors (pp. 57–76). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21674-4_4
Dzyuba, Yu. A., & Bakalova, I. K. (2022). Application of CGE Models as a Climate Policy Assessment Tool: Bibliometric Analysis. Interekspo GEO-Sibir’ [Interexpo Geo-Siberia], 2 (4), 129–140. https://doi.org/10.33764/2618-981X-2022-2-4-129-140 (In Russ.)
Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (2002). Technology, geography, and trade. Econometrica, 70 (5), 1741–1779. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00352
Eaton, J., Kortum, S., & Kramarz, F. (2011). An anatomy of international trade: Evidence from French firms. Econometrica, 79 (5), 1453–1498. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA8318
Felbermayr, G. J., & Toubal, F. (2012). Revisiting the trade-migration nexus: Evidence from new OECD data. World Development, 40 (5), 928–937. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.11.016
Garriga, C., Hedlund, A., Tang, Y., & Wang, P. (2023). Rural-urban migration, structural transformation, and housing markets in China. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15 (2), 413–440. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160142
Hanson, G. H. (2006). Illegal migration from Mexico to the United States. Journal of Economic Literature, 44 (4), 869–924. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.44.4.869
Hao, T., Sun, R., Tombe, T., & Zhu, X. (2020). The effect of migration policy on growth, structural change, and regional inequality in China. Journal of Monetary Economics, 113, 112–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.003
Hauser, D., & Seneca, M. (2022). Labor mobility in a monetary union. Journal of International Economics, 137, 103600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103600
Hollifield, J., Martin, P. L., & Orrenius, P. (Eds.). (2014). Controlling immigration: A global perspective. Stanford University Press.
House, C. L., Proebsting, C., & Tesar, L. L. (2018). Quantifying the benefits of labor mobility in a currency union (No. w25347). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25347
Ma, L., & Tang, Y. (2020). Geography, trade, and internal migration in China. Journal of Urban Economics, 115, 103181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2019.06.004
Makarov, V. L., Bakhtizin, A. R., Beklaryan, G. L., Akopov, A. S., & Strelkovskii, N. V. (2022). Simulation of migration and demographic processes using FLAME GPU. Biznes-informatika [Business Informatics], 16 (1), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814X.2022.1.7.21 (In Russ.)
Makarov, V. L., Bakhtizin, A. R., Sushko, E. D., & Ageeva, A. F. (2017). Agent-based approach in modeling labor migration from China to Russia. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of Region], 13 (2), 331–341. https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-2-1 (In Russ.)
Makarov, V., Bakhtizin, A., Beklaryan, G., Akopov, A., Rovenskaya, E., & Strelkovskiy, N. (2019). Aggregated agent-based simulation model of migration flows of the European Union countries. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody [Economics and Mathematical Methods], 55 (1), 3–15. https://doi.org/10.31857/S042473880004044-7 (In Russ.)
Manacorda, M., Manning, A., & Wadsworth, J. (2012). The impact of immigration on the structure of wages: theory and evidence from Britain. Journal of the European economic association, 10 (1), 120–151. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01049.x
Mansoor, A. M., & Quillin, B. (Eds.). (2006). Migration and remittances: Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. World Bank Publications.
Marchiori, L., Shen, I. L., & Docquier, F. (2013). Brain drain in globalization: a general equilibrium analysis from the sending countries’ perspective. Economic Inquiry, 51 (2), 1582–1602. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2012.00492.x
Melitz, M. J. (2003). The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 71 (6), 1695–1725. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00467
Mkrtchyan, N., & Florinskaya, Y. (2018). Migration of skilled workers to Russia: balance of losses and gains. Monitoring of Russia’s Economic Outlook. Moscow, (1), 15–18. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3118256 (In Russ.)
Nesterova, K. (2021). Estimating the impact of skill-differentiated migration on long-term economic growth in a global CGE-OLG model. Ekonomicheskaya Politika [Economic Policy], 16 (5), 8–39. https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2021-5-8-39 (In Russ.)
Ottaviano, G. I., & Peri, G. (2012). Rethinking the effect of immigration on wages. Journal of the European economic association, 10 (1), 152–197. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01052.x
Parsons, C., & Vézina, P. L. (2018). Migrant networks and trade: The Vietnamese boat people as a natural experiment. The Economic Journal, 128 (612), 210–234. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12457
Rapoport, H. (2018). Diaspora externalities: a view from the South. WIDER Working Paper, (25). https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2018/467-4
Scipioni, M. (2018). Failing forward in EU migration policy? EU integration after the 2015 asylum and migration crisis. Journal of European Public Policy, 25 (9), 1357–1375. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2017.1325920
Serebrennikova, A. I., Mikryukov, A. V., Kuvaeva, Yu. V., & Gorohov, A. Y. (2016). Intellectual migration in Russia. Innovatsionnaya ekonomika: perspektivy razvitiya i sovershenstvovaniya [Innovative economy: prospects for development and improvement], (7(17)), 335–340. (In Russ.)
Sushkov, Y. S. (2018). Migration of population: regularities, problems and their solutions. Academia. Architecture and Construction, (2), 103–108. (In Russ.)
Tombe, T., & Zhu, X. (2019). Trade, migration, and productivity: A quantitative analysis of China. American Economic Review, 109 (5), 1843–1872. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150811
Van Mol, C., & De Valk, H. (2016). Migration and immigrants in Europe: A historical and demographic perspective. In B. Garcés-Mascareñas, R. Penninx, (Eds.), Integration processes and policies in Europe: Contexts, levels and actors (pp. 31–55). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21674-4_3
Yang, L., Cheng, J., Yu, L., & Li, C. (2020). What factors can explain the rising spatial disparity in economic activities in China?. China & World Economy, 28 (3), 51–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12332
Загрузки
Дополнительные файлы
Опубликован
Как цитировать
Выпуск
Раздел
Лицензия
Copyright (c) 2025 Сугаипов Дени Ризванович
Это произведение доступно по лицензии Creative Commons «Attribution» («Атрибуция») 4.0 Всемирная.
