Асимметричное влияние открытости торговли и национального дохода на численность правительства в странах БРИКС
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-4-21Аннотация
Растущее экономическое влияние стран БРИКС (Бразилия, Россия, Индия, Китай и Южная Африка) привлекло значительное внимание к макроэкономической динамике, стимулирующей их развитие. Поскольку эти страны с быстро растущей экономикой все более интегрируются в глобальные рынки, становится все труднее сбалансировать их экономический рост, либерализацию торговли и устойчивую налогово-бюджетную политику. Согласно гипотезе компенсации, чем более открытой становится торговля в этих странах, тем выше национальный доход (как предполагает закон Вагнера) и численность правительства как ключевого механизма управления финансами. Для стран БРИКС, которые сейчас испытывают существенное фискальное давление и борются за глобальную конкурентоспособность, понимание этой динамики особенно важно. Цель настоящего исследования — подтвердить закон Вагнера и гипотезу компенсации в контексте БРИКС. С помощью панельной нелинейной модели авторегрессии с распределенным лагом на основе годовых панельных данных с 1999 по 2023 гг. удалось подтвердить закон Вагнера, продемонстрировав положительную взаимосвязь между экономическим ростом и численностью правительства. Кроме того, результаты исследования подтверждают гипотезу компенсации, указывая на то, что открытость торговли также приводит к росту численности правительства. Это исследование подчеркивает необходимость баланса между содействием экономическому росту и либерализацией торговли, поскольку каждая из этих стратегий может привести к раздуванию государственного сектора и повлиять на финансовую стабильность. Поскольку страны БРИКС продолжают интегрироваться в глобальные рынки, это исследование вносит вклад в дискуссию о законе Вагнера и открытости торговли, предлагая новое понимание устойчивой бюджетной политики, оптимизации государственных расходов, глобальной конкурентоспособности и экономическому росту в странах БРИКС.
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