Национальная климатическая политика: концептуальные основы и проблемы адаптации
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2021-4-6Ключевые слова:
национальная климатическая политика, региональная климатическая политика, цифровизация, информационная асимметрия, климатические риски, организационно-экономический механизм, зеленые инновации, финансовые инструменты, мониторинг, декаплинг, климатоемкость, энергоемкость, климатическая безопасностьАннотация
Изменение климата на планете ставит под сомнение дальнейшее существование человечества. Темпы потепления в России в 2,5 раза превышают скорость роста среднемировой температуры, что грозит гигантскими экологическими и финансовыми потерями. Это актуализирует проблему концептуального обновления и разработки новых методов и инструментов адаптационного регулирования национальной климатической политики с целю повышения ее эффективности в российских регионах и на федеральном уровне. В работе использовались методы контент-анализа, группировки, моделирования, сравнительного и корреляционного анализа, а также методология информационной асимметрии. Обоснована необходимость концептуального перехода от автаркии и директивности к интеграции регионов и федерации на основе адаптационных и превентивных мер при смещении акцента с периодической оценки изменений климата и обусловливающих их факторов на непрерывное управление климатическими рисками эмитентами вредных выбросов и их постоянный региональный мониторинг. Проведена классификация климатических рисков и обоснована важность транспаретности и сопоставимости информации о динамике как минимум 3 видов риска: антропогенных, рисков снижения качества жизни и моральных климатических рисков. Разработан организационно-экономический механизм реализации климатической политики, основной функцией которого является управление природопользованием в регионах индикаторами рисков с целью мотивации граждан, собственников и чиновников к климатосбережению. Оценка эффекта декаплинга и ранжирование субъектов РФ в координатах «энергоемкость — климатоемкость» доказали целесообразность использования предложенных индикаторов для повышения эффективности организационно-экономического механизма. Предложено совершенствовать нормативное и финансовое обеспечение механизма за счет внедрения рынка квот, зеленых сертификатов и облигаций, методов и видов страхования и хеджирования климатических рисков на основе применения проектного и сценарного подхода и разработки моделей онлайн-управления. Результаты исследования могут быть использованы в цифровизации национальной климатической политики, при разработке региональных и муниципальных климатических стратегий, программ, проектов.
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