Финансовое развитие и экономический рост Индонезии до и после пандемии COVID-19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-4-23Ключевые слова:
традиционный банк, исламский банк, экономический рост Индонезии, ВВП, финансирование, вклады, модель авторегрессии и распределённого лага, векторная модель коррекции ошибокАннотация
Пандемия COVID-19 негативно повлияла на экономическое развитие большинства стран. Финансовые институты, выступая в качестве посредников, играют важную роль в ускорении экономического роста. Однако предыдущие работы исследовали финансовые организации в общем, не учитывая банковский контекст. Кроме того, большинство исследований было выполнено до пандемии COVID-19. В статье рассматривается краткосрочное и долгосрочное влияние банковского сектора на экономическое развитие Индонезии в период 2009-2021 гг. Показатели количества вкладов, количества банковских офисов, а также общественного финансирования были использованы в качестве переменных для анализа взаимосвязи между финансовым развитием и экономическим ростом (валовым внутренним продуктом). С этой целью авторы использовали векторную модель коррекции ошибок. Проведенная на основе данных годовых отчетов оценка влияния индонезийских банков на экономический рост страны выявила краткосрочную и долгосрочную корреляцию между финансовым развитием и экономическим ростом Индонезии. Между деятельностью исламских банков Индонезии и ВВП существует двухсторонняя взаимосвязь, а между деятельностью традиционных банков и экономическим ростом — односторонняя. Таким образом, следует позволить банкам выдавать больше кредитов на инвестиционные и производственные проекты. Исследование финансового развития до и после пандемии COVID-19 показало, что макро- и микроэкономическая стабильность может быть восстановлена путем увеличения притока капитала и инвестиций в прибыльные секторы. В дальнейшем необходимо проанализировать влияние банков на конкретные секторы, такие как сельское хозяйство и малый и средний бизнес, играющие важную роль в развивающихся странах.
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