Specificities of Spatial System Transformation and Strategies of the Russian Arctic Redevelopment under the Conditions of Climate Changes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-1Keywords:
arctic zone of the Russian Federation, climate change, climate factor, spatial system, system transformation, adaptation, variability, strategiesAbstract
A bunch of papers has been published by foreign and Russian researchers on climate change impact on the environment and regional socioeconomic development. The bulk of them is focused on analyzing drivers and impact assessments for the Arctic region characterized by the most intensive climate change worldwide. The paper puts to the fore a nontrivial issue of considering the climate change impact factor within the methodology and practice of the strategic process of the Russian Arctic redevelopment. The issue above is complicated by the imperative of ranking of the salience of the climate change socioeconomic implications as priorities of the governance and public administration of the comprehensive development of the macro-region under consideration. The lack of the effective tools for consolidation of the needed resources further exacerbates it. The summary of the findings of the national and international researchers in the area of climate change impact on environment, settlements and economic activity in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is introduced to substantiate the policy decisions made. We have specified the methodological issues related to peculiarities and role of the climate change factor plays in policy decisions within the context of contemporary knowledge on patterns of spatial systems transformation, their capabilities of selforganization and adaptation to externalities. The authors have revealed the general regularities and specificity of the AZRF transformation as a spatial system and the impact of climate change produced on this process. We have particularly emphasized the issues of adaptation to climate change of the AZRF indigenous population whose health and economic activities experience increased risks associated with high intensiveness of the climatic fluctuations. Recommendations for using scenario (variation) approach to redesigning strategies and programs of AZRF development are substantiated.References
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. (2014). Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Core Writing Team. In: R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (Eds). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151.
Vtoroy otsenochnyy doklad Rosgidrometa ob izmeneniyakh klimata i ikh posledstviyakh na territorii Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Roshydromet’s second assessment report on climate change and its impacts on the territory of the Russian Federation]. (2014). Moscow: Rosgidromet Publ., 1009. (In Russ.)
Larsen, J. N., Anisimov, O. A., Constable, A., Hollowed, A. B., Maynard, N., Prestrud, P., Prowse, T. D. & Stone, J. M. R. (2014). Polar regions. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Barros, V. R., C. B. Field, D. J. Dokken, M. D. Mastrandrea, K. J. Mach, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, and L. L. White (Eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1567–1612.
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. (2005). ACIA, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 1042.
Carson, M. & Peterson, G. (Eds). (2016). Arctic Resilience Report. Arctic Council, Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm, 218.
Post, E., Forchhammer, M. C. et al. (2009). Ecological Dynamics Across the Arctic Associated with Recent Climate Change. Science, 325, 5946, 1355–1358.
Kaplan, J. O., Bigelow, N. H., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J. et al. (2003). Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, D19, 8171.
Hof, A. R., Jansson, R. & Nilsson, C. (2015). Future of biodiversity in the Barents Region. TemaNord, 102.
Cold Comfort: Special Report: the Arctic. (2012, June 16th). The Economist.
Schaefer, K., Lantuit, H., Romanovsky, V. & Schuur, E. A. G. (2012). Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost. United Nations Environment Programme Special Report. Nairobi, Kenya, 50.
Ivanter, V. V., Leksin, V. N. & Porfiryev, B. N. (2014). Arkticheskiy megaproekt v sisteme gosudarstvennykh interesov i gosudarstvennogo upravleniya [Arctic megaproject within the complex of national interests and state governance]. Problemnyy analiz i gosudarstvenno-upravlencheskoye proektirovanie [Problem Analysis and Public Administration Projection], 6, 6–24. (In Russ.)
Leksin, V. N. & Porfiryev, B. N. (2015). Pereosvoyenie rossiyskoy Arktiki kak predmet sistemnogo issledovaniya gosudarstvennogo programmno-tselevogo upravleniya. Voprosy metodologii [Redevelopment of the Arctic Area of Russia as an Objective of Systems Research and Special-Purpose Program Management Methodological Issues]. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of Region], 4, 9–20. (In Russ.)
Leksin, V. N. & Porfiryev, B. N. (2016). Osobennosti otsenki rezultativnosti i effektivnosti programm razvitiya makroregionov. Na primere Programmy razvitiya Arkticheskoy zony RF [Specificity of Performance Assessment and Efficiency of Macroregions’ Development Programs (the case of the RF Arctic zone Development Program)]. Problemy teorii i praktiki upravleniya [Theoretical and Practical Aspects of Management], 4, 28–36. (In Russ.)
Leksin, V. N. & Porfiryev, B. N. (2016). Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Government Programs of Socioeconomic Development of Regions of Russia. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 27(4), 418–428.
Leksin, V. N. & Porfiryev, B. N. (2016). Gosudarstvennoye upravlenie razvitiem Arkticheskoy zony Rossiyskoy Federatsii. Monografiya [Governing the development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation. Monograph]. Moscow: Nauchnyy konsultant Publ., 194. (In Russ.)
Dymnikov, V. P., Lykosov, V. N. & Volodin, E. M. (2012). Modeling climate and its changes: Current problems. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 82(2), 111–119.
Anisimov, O. A. & Belolutskaya, M. A. (2002). Otsenka vliyaniya izmeneniya klimata i degradatsii vechnoy merzloty na infrastrukturu v severnykh regionakh Rossii [Assessment of climate change impacts and permafrost degradation on infrastructure in the north regions of Russia]. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya [Russian Meteorology and Hydrology], 6, 15–22. (In Russ.)
Anisimov, O. A., Velichko, A. A., Demchenko, P. F., Eliseev, A. V., Mokhov, I. I. & Nechaev, V. P. (2004). Vliyanie izmeneniy klimata na vechnuyu merzlotu v proshlom, nastoyashchem i budushchem [Climate change impacts on permafrost in the past, nowadays and in the future]. Fizika atmosfery i okeana [Izvestiya. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics], 38(1), 25–39. (In Russ.)
Anisimov, O. A. & Lavrov, S. A. (2004). Globalnoye poteplenie i tayanie vechnoy merzloty. Otsenka riskov dlya proizvodstvennykh obektov TEK [Global warming and melting of permafrost: risk evaluation for manufacturing entities of the energy sector]. Tekhnologii TEK [Technologies of the energy sector], 3, 78–83. (In Russ.)
Revich, B. A. et al (2008). Vliyanie globalnykh klimaticheskikh izmeneniy na zdorovye naseleniya rossiyskoy Arktiki [Climate change impact on health of Russian Arctic population]. Moscow: Predstavitelstvo OON v Rossiyskoy Federatsii Publ., 30. (In Russ.)
Vozdeystvie izmeneniya klimata na rossiyskuyu Arktiku. Analiz i puti resheniya problemy [Climate change impact on Russian Arctic: analysis and directions of mitigation and adaptation]. (2008). Moscow: WWF Rossii Publ., 28. (In Russ.)
Doklad o razvitii cheloveka 2007/2008. Borba s izmeneniyami klimata: chelovecheskaya solidarnost v razdelennom mire: per. s angl. [Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fight against climate change: human solidarity in the divided world. Trans. from English]. (2007). Moscow: Ves Mir Publ., 400. (In Russ.)
Izrael, Yu. A., Pavlov, A. V., Anokhin, Yu. A., Myach, L. T. & Sherstyukov, B. G. (2006). Statisticheskie otsenki dinamiki izmeneniya elementov klimata v rayonakh vechnoy merzloty na territorii Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Statistical assessments of climate change dynamics in the regions of permafrost of the Russian Federation]. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya [Russian Meteorology and Hydrology], 5, 27–38. (In Russ.)
Kattsov, V. M., Alekseev, G. V., Pavlova, T. V., Sporyshev, P. V., Bekryaev, R. V. & Govorkova, V. A. (2007). Modelirovanie evolyutsii ledyanogo pokrova mirovogo okeana v XX i XXI vekakh [Modeling the evolution of the world ocean ice cover in the 20th and 21st centuries]. Izvestiya Rossiyskoy akademii nauk. Fizika atmosfery i okeana [Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics], 43(2), 165–181. (In Russ.)
Porfiriev, B. N. (2011). Priroda i ekonomika: riski vzaimodeystviya [Nature and economy: risks of interaction]. Ekologo-ekonomicheskie ocherki [Essays in environmental economics]. Moscow: Ankil Publ., 352. (In Russ.)
Kattsov, V. M. & Pavlova, T. V. (2015). Ozhidaemyye izmeneniya prizemnoy temperatury vozdukha v Arktike v 21-m veke. Rezultaty raschetov s pomoshchyu ansambley globalnykh klimaticheskikh modeley. CMIP5 i CMIP3 [Expected Arctic surface air temperature changes through the 21st century: projections with ensembles of global climate models (CMIP5 and CMIP3)]. Trudy Glavnoy geofizicheskoy observatorii im. A. I. Voeykova [Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory], 579, 7–21. (In Russ.)
Pavlova, T. V. & Kattsov, V. M. (2015). Ozhidaemye izmeneniya osadkov i ispareniya v Arktike v 21-m veke. Rezultaty raschetov s pomoshchyu ansamblya globalnykh klimaticheskikh modeley. CMIP5 [Expected Arctic precipitation and evaporation changes through the 21st century: projections with an ensemble of global climate models (CMIP5)]. Trudy Glavnoy geofizicheskoy observatorii im. A. I. Voeykova [Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory], 579, 22–34. (In Russ.)
Meleshko, V. P., Kattsov, V. M., Baydin, A. V., Pavlova, T. V. & Govorkova, V. A. (2016). Ozhidaemye izmeneniya gidrologicheskogo rezhima v Severnoy Evrazii v rezultate ischeznoveniya mnogoletnego morskogo lda v Arktike [Expected change of hydrologic cycle in Northern Eurasia due to disappearance of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean]. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya [Russian Meteorology and Hydrology], 11, 5–21. (In Russ.)
Eliseyev, D. O. (2016). Severnyy morskoy put: globalnoye poteplenie, ekonomika i geopolitika [The Northern Sea Route: Global Warming, Economy and Geopolitics]. Problemy teorii i praktiki upravleniya [Theoretical and Practical Aspects of Management], 11, 85–92. (In Russ.)
Impact of Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate, Impact Assessment. ACIA. (2004). Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 140.
Anisimov, O. A., Vaughan, D. G., Callaghan, T. V., Furgal, C., Marchant, H., Prowse, T. D., Vilhjalsson, H. & Walsh, J. E. (2007). Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden and C. E. Hanson (Eds). Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 653–685.
Barber, D. G., Lukovich, J. V., Keogak, J., Baryluk, S., Fortier, L. & Henry, G. H. R. (2008). The changing climate of the Arctic. Arctic, 61, (1 Suppl.), 7–26.
Curtis, T., Kvernmo, S. & Bjerregaard, P. (2005). Changing living conditions, life style and health. International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 64(5), 442–450.
Derocher, A. E., Lunn, N. J. & Stirling, I. (2004). Polar bears in a warming climate. Integrative and Comparative Biology, 44(2), 163–176.
Drinkwater, K. F. (2011). The influence of climate variability and change on the ecosystems of the Barents Sea and adjacent waters: review and synthesis of recent studies from the NESSAS project. Progress in Oceanography, 90, 47–61.
Drinkwater, K.F., Beaugrand, G., Kaeriyama, M., Kim, S., Ottersen, G., Perry, R. I., Ptsrtner, H.-O., Polovina, J. J. & Takasuka, A. (2010). On the processes linking climate to ecosystem changes. Journal of Marine Systems, 79(3–4), 374–388.
Ellingsen, I. H., Dalpadado, P., Slagstad, D. & Loeng, H. (2008). Impact of climatic change on the biological production in the Barents Sea. Climatic Change, 87(1–2), 155–175.
Forbes, B. C. (2008). Equity, vulnerability and resilience in social-ecological systems: a contemporary example from the Russian Arctic. Research in Social Problems and Public Policy, 15, 203–236.
Forbes, D. L. (Ed.). State of the Arctic Coast 2010: Scientific Review and Outlook. International Arctic Science Committee, Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, International Permafrost Association, Helmholtz-Zentrum, Geesthacht, Germany, 178.
Hansen, B. B., Aanes, R., Herfindal, I., Kohler, J., Szhther, B.-E. & Oli, M. K. (2011). Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects. Ecology, 92(10), 1917–1923.
Climate Change 2007: Adaptation and Vulnerability. (2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Chang, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
42. Kattsov, V., Ryabinin, V., Overland, J., Serreze, M., Visbeck, M., Walsh, J., Meier, W. & Zhang, X. (2010). Arctic sea ice change: a grand challenge of climate science. Journal of Glaciology, 56(200), 1115–1121.
Meleshko, V. P., Johannessen, O. M., Baidin, A. V., Pavlova, T. V. & Govorkova, V. A. (2016). Arctic amplification: does it impact the polar jet stream? Tellus. Series A. Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 68, 1–11.
Mokhov, I. I. (2015). Contemporary climate changes in the Arctic. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 85(3), 265–271.
Revich, B. A. (2008). Climate change alters human health in Russia. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 19(3), 311–317.
Revich, B. A. & Shaposhnikov, D. A. (2012). Climate change, heat waves, and cold spells as risk factors for increased mortality in some regions of Russia. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 23(2), 195–207.
Revich, B., Tokarevich, N. & Parkinson, A. J. (2012). Climate change and zoonotic infections in the Russian Arctic. International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 71, 18792.
Swann, A. L., Fung, I. Y., Levis, S., Bonan, G. & Doney, S. (2010). Changes in Arctic vegetation induce high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(4), 1295–1300.
McMichael, A. J. et al. (Eds). (2003). Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses. WHO, Geneva, 322.
Porfiryev, B. N. & Kattsov, V. M. (2011). Sotsialno-ekonomicheskie posledstviya i adaptatsiya k izmeneniyam klimata v Rossii. Otsenka i prognoz [Socioeconomic impacts of climate change in Russia and adaptation: assessment and outlook]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 11, 94–121. (In Russ.)
Setrov, M. I. (1972). Osnovy funktsionalnoy teorii organizatsii [Basics of the functional theory of organization]. Leningrad: Nauka Publ., 164. (In Russ.)
Setrov, M. I. (Ed.). (1988). Printsipy organizatsii sotsialnykh sistem [Principles of organization of social systems]. Kiev; Odessa: Vyshcha shkola Publ.; Golovnoye izdatelstvo Publ., 242. (In Russ.)
Porfiryev, B. N. & Terentyev, N. E. (2016). Ekologo-klimaticheskie riski sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Arkticheskoy zony Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Environmental and Climatic Risks of Socioeconomic Development of the Arctic Area of the Russian Federation]. Ekologicheskiy vestnik Rossii [Environmental Herald of Russia], 1, 44–51. (In Russ.)
Tatarkin, A. I., Loginov, V. G. & Zakharchuk, E. A. (2017). Sotsialno-ekonomicheskie problemy osvoeniya i razvitiya rossiyskoy Arkticheskoy zony [Socio-economic issues of development and redevelopment of the Russian Arctic Area]. Vestnik Rossiyskoy akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2, 99–109. (In Russ.)
Klyuchnikova, E. M., Isaeva, L. G., Masloboev, V. A., Alieva, T. E., Ivanova, L. V. & Kharitonova, G. N. (2017). Stsenarii razvitiya klyuchevykh otrasley ekonomiki Murmanskoy oblasti v kontekste globalnykh izmeneniy v Arktike [Future narratives for key sectors of the economyof the murmansk region in the context of global changes in the arctic]. Arktika. Ekologiya i ekonomika [Arctic: Ecology and Economy], 1, 19–31. (In Russ.)
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2017 Vladimir Nikolaevich Leksin, Boris Nikolaevich Porfiryev
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
