Влияние местного финансового рынка на экономический рост: пример Казахстана
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-1-15Аннотация
Финансовый рынок Казахстана — один из важнейших элементов развития страны. Главная цель государства — построить хорошо развитый, конкурентоспособный и заслуживающий доверия финансовый рынок, оказывающий решающие влияние на экономику и устойчивое развитие. Данное утверждение верно лишь для экономик, достигших определенного уровня развития. Для стран с переходной экономикой достижение значительного уровня экономического роста является необходимым условием формирования стабильного рынка капитала и банковской системы, что впоследствии окажет положительное влияние на рост. В данной статье исследуется взаимосвязь между местным финансовым рынком и экономическим ростом Казахстана на основе характеристик и компонентов экономического роста, а также эмпирических показателей развития банковской системы и фондового рынка — размера, ликвидности и волатильности, — используемых в качестве контрольных переменных, определяющих экономическое положение Казахстана. Регрессионный анализ временных рядов и тест причинности Грейнджера для данных за период с 1994 г. по 2017 г. позволили разработать показатели финансового развития для конкретной страны. Результаты исследования показали, что мировые цены на нефть и общий объем инвестиций являются наиболее важными факторами, влияющими на экономический рост в экономике Казахстана. Направление причинно-следственной связи от экономического роста к развитию местного финансового рынка Казахстана противоречит постулату о том, что развитие финансового посредничества стимулирует экономический рост. На данном этапе финансовый сектор не стимулирует экономическое развитие Казахстана, в то время как экономический рост, основанный на добыче и экспорте нефти, является катализатором развития финансового сектора. Правительству Казахстана рекомендуется сместить акцент с финансового рынка на экономическое развитие с целью мобилизации достаточных объемов внутренних и международных инвестиций для трансформации экономики и перехода к устойчивому росту.
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