Industrial Production Dynamics of Regions: Assessment of the Resilience of Responses to External Constraints

Abstract

The Russian economy is at the centre of destabilising events. The article assesses the resilience of responses of industrial production to external constraints. Long – and short-term regional responses were examined using the methods of estimation of trend and cyclical components of production volume changes, construction of phase dynamics models (sectoral and cross-sectoral tracers) of relevant and prospective specialisation areas, assessment of the resilience of industrial regions based on the indicators of long-term, short-term and prospective dynamics. Analysis of particular resilience indicators demonstrated regional differences in production indices before and after destabilising events, duration of the recovery period, degree of reaching the pre-shock level, presence or absence of stabilising industries, etc. Three levels of production resilience were distinguished: elastic response characterises regions that managed to reach the pre-shock level; super-elastic response indicates compensatory recovery and positive post-shock growth; plastic response means negative consequences after the normalisation of events. The paper analysed export-oriented single-industry metallurgical regions using official statistics on industrial production indices for 2006–2021. As a result, their resilience profiles were differentiated: the research noted a negative impact and slowdown in economic growth in Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk oblasts, as well as a positive reaction in Vologda and Lipetsk oblasts. Additionally, it was revealed that stabilising industries with counter-phase dynamics are present in Vologda and Lipetsk oblasts and absent in Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk oblasts. According on the identified levels of production resilience, targets and tools of regional industrial policy were determined. Regions with plastic responses to external constraints require support for prospective specialisations. In regions with elastic and super-elastic responses, it is necessary to implement strategies and policy measures for the stabilisation of development through economic diversification.