Socio-Economic Effectiveness of the Development of the Railway Network in Siberia and the Far East: Mathematical Simulation and Forecast
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/2018-3-6Keywords:
Trans-Siberian Railway, investment projects, mathematical simulation, multiplicative effect, socio-economic development, trade flowsAbstract
The purpose of the research consists in the quantitative evaluation of long-term macroeconomic, social, geopolitical effects from the realization of the project of the development of the railway network in Siberia and the Far East, including the building of high-speed rail. In the study, we applied the methods of mathematical simulation and forecasting. Calculations with the use of the developed mathematical models have shown that the implementation of this project will play a large role in the socio-economic development of the country as well as in strengthening its geo-economic and geopolitical positions in the Asia-Pacific Region and in the world as a whole.References
Sadovnichy, V. A. & Osipov, G. V. (2016). Integralnaya evraziyskaya infrastrukturnaya sistema kak prioritet natsionalnogo razvitiya strany. 2-e izd. [Integrated Euroasian infrastructure system as a priority of the country’s national development. 2nd ed.]. Moscow: ISPI RAN Publ., 61. (In Russ.)
Lapidus, B. M. & Macheret, D. A. (2014). Makroekonomicheskaya rol zheleznodorozhnogo transporta: Teoreticheskie osnovy, istoricheskie tendentsii i vzglyad v budushcheye [Macroeconomic role of railway transport: Theoretical foundations, historical tendencies and prospection]. Moscow: URSS Publ., 234. (In Russ.)
Shkurina, L. V., Beryakov, S. N. & Biryukov, A. A. (2013). Kompleksnaya otsenka effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov razvitiya zheleznodorozhnogo transporta s uchyotom ikh vliyaniya na ekonomicheskiy potentsial regionov [Comprehensive assessment for the investment projects efficiency of railway transport development taking into account their influence on the economic capacity of regions]. Moscow: MGUPS Publ., 213. (In Russ.)
Impact of Transport Infrastructure Investment on Regional Development (2002). Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Paris: OECD Publications, 152.
Bzhusko, S. V. (2009). Vliyanie razvitiya zheleznodorozhnogo transporta na ekonomiku Rossii i Kitaya. Sopostavitelnyy analiz: diss. … kand. ekon. nauk [Influence of the railway transport development on the economy of Russia and China. Comparative analysis: PhD thesis in Economics]. Moscow, 148. (In Russ.)
Kibalov, E. B., Minin, S. V., Nekhoroshkov, V. P., Nekhoroshkov, E. V., Pakhomova, G. F., Pakhomov, K. A., Pyataev, M. V., Romankevich, S. V. & Khutoretsky, A. B. (2007). Sistemnyy analiz ozhidaemoy effektivnosti krupnomasshtabnykh investitsionnykh proektov na zheleznodorozhnom transporte: uchebnoye posobie [The system analysis of the expected efficiency of large-scale investment projects for the railway transport: textbook]. Novosibirsk: SGUPS Publ., 155. (In Russ.)
Nekhoroshkov, V. P. (2010). Otsenka makroekonomicheskikh effektov krupnomasshtabnykh zheleznodorozhnykh proektov v usloviyakh globalnoy ekonomiki [The assessment of macroeconomic effects of large-scale railway projects in the conditions of global economy]. Ekonomicheskie nauki [Economic Sciences], 11, 307–313. (In Russ.)
Fogel, R. W. (1964). Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 296.
Krugman, P. (2009). The Increasing Returns Revolution in Trade and Geography. American Economic Review, 99(3), 561–571.
Samuelson, P. (1952). The transfer problem and transport costs: the terms of trade when impediments are absent. Economic Journal, 62, 278–304.
Horridge, M. & Wittwer, G. (2008). SinoTERM, a multi-regional CGE model of China. China economic review, 19, 628–634.
Knaap, T. & Oosterhaven, J. (2011). Measuring the welfare effects of infrastructure: A simple spatial equilibrium evaluation of Dutch railway proposals. Research in Transportation Economics, 31(1), 19–28.
Li, Y., Bolton, K. & Westphal, T. (2016). The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways on Aggregate Trade Volumes between China and Europe. Working Papers on East Asian Studies, 109.
Pilyasov, A. N. (2011). Novaya ekonomicheskaya geografiya (NEG) i eyo potentsial dlya izucheniya razmeshcheniya proizvoditelnykh sil Rossii [New Economic Geography (NEG) and its potential for studying the placement of Russian productive forces]. Regionalnyye issledovaniya [Regional Studies], 1(31), 3–31. (In Russ.)
Makarov, V. L., Bakhtizin, A. R., Sushko, E. D. & Ageeva, A. F. (2017). Imitatsiya sotsialno-ekonomicheskoy sistemy Evraziyskogo kontinenta s pomoshchyu agent-orientirovannykh modeley [Simulation of the socio-economic system of the Eurasian continent using the agent-based models]. Prikladnaya ekonometrika [Applied Econometrics], 48(4), 122–139. (In Russ.)
Baranov, A. O., Dondokovm Z. B.-D. & Slepenkova, Yu. M. (2016). Postroenie i ispolzovanie regionalnykh mezhotraslevykh modeley dlya analiza i prognozirovaniya razvitiya ekonomiki regionov [Construcion and using regional input-output models for analysis and forecasting of regions’ economy development]. Idei i idealy [Ideas and Ideals], 4(30), Vol. 2, 66–85. (In Russ.)
Kantorovich, V. L., Kutateladze, S. S. & Fet, Ya. I. (Eds). (2002). Leonid Vitalevich Kantorovich: chelovek i uchyonyy. V 2 t. [Leonid Vitalyevich Kantorovich: the person and the scientist. In 2 vol.]. Novosibirsk: SO RAN Publ., Filial “Geo” Publ., Vol. 1, 544. (In Russ.)
Granberg, A. G. (1973). Optimizatsiya territorialnykh proportsiy narodnogo khozyaystva [Optimization of territorial proportions of the national economy]. Moscow: Ekonomika Publ., 248. (In Russ.)
Suslov, V. I., Ershov, Yu. S. & Ibragimov, N. M. (2017). Problemy prostranstvennogo razvitiya ekonomiki RF v issledovaniyakh Novosibirskoy shkoly regionalnoy nauki [The issues of the spatial development of the Russian Federation economy in the studies of the Novosibirsk School of Regional Science]. Prostranstvennyy analiz sotsialno-ekonomicheskikh sistem. Istoriya i sovremennost. Tr. Granbergovskoy konf., 10–13 okt. 2016 g., Novosibirsk [Spatial analysis of social and economic systems. History and present. Proceedings of the Granberg Conference, Oct. 10–13, 2016, Novosibirsk]. Novosibirsk: IEOPP SO RAN Publ., 526; 6–14. (In Russ.)
Baklanov, P. Ya. & Shuvalov, V. E. (Eds.). (2016). Sotsialno-ekonomicheskaya geografiya v Rossii [Socio-economic geography in Russia]. Russkoye geograficheskoe obshchestvo [Russian Geographical Society]. Vladivostok: Dalnauka Publ., 326. (In Russ.)
Minakir, P. A. (2014). Ekonomicheskiy analiz i izmereniya v prostranstve [Economic Analysis аnd Measurements: Spatial Case]. Prostranstvennaya ekonomika [Spatial Economics], 1, 12–39. (In Russ.)
Ivanovsky, A. V. (2017). Ekonomicheskaya otsenka realizuemosti proektov novogo transportnogo stroitelstva na vostochnom poligone zheleznykh dorog: diss. … kand. ekon. nauk [Economic assessment of the feasibility of the projects of new transport construction on the East area of railroads: PhD thesis in Economcis]. Irkutsk. (In Russ.)
Ryabushchenko, O. A. (2011). Otsenka effektivnosti gosudarstvenno-chastnogo partnerstva dlya razvitiya transportnoy infrastruktury Sibiri: diss. … kand. ekon. nauk [Assessment of the efficiency of public-private partnership for the development of transport infrastructure of Siberia: PhD theisis in Economics]. Novosibirsk. (In Russ.)
Kydland, F. E. & Prescott, E. C. (1982). Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica, 50, 1345–1370.
Malkov, S. Yu., Bilyuga, S. E. & Davydova, O. I. (2017). Modelirovanie makroekonomicheskoy dinamiki razvivayushchikhsya stran s uchetom vliyaniya vneshney torgovli [The simulation of the macroeconomic dynamics of the developing countries taking into account foreign trade]. Ekonomika i upravlenie. Problemy, resheniya [Economics and Management: Issues, Solutions], 3(5), 101–110. (In Russ.)
Malkov, A. S. (2005). O matematicheskom modelirovanii tovaropotokov [About mathematical modeling of trade flows]. Ros. akad. nauk., In-t prikladnoy matematiki im. M. V. Keldysha. Preprint № 11 [Keldysh Institute of Applied Manthematics of RAS. Reprint № 11]. Moscow, 45. (In Russ.)
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2018 Viktor Antonovich Sadovnichii, Gennady Vasilyevich Osipov, Askar Akaevich Akaev, Artemy Sergeevich Malkov, Sergey Georgievich Shuigin
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
