Estimation of the Dependence of the Investment Multiplier on the Structure of the Regional Economy

Authors

  • Sergey Nikolaevich Silvestrov Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7678-1283
  • Vladimir Petrovich Bauer Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6612-3797
  • Vladimir Vladimirovich Eremin Russian State University for the Humanities in the city of Domodedovo; Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17059/2018-4-31

Keywords:

investment multiplier, regional economy, inflation, economic growth, economic structure, resources, economic management, federal district, diffusion of innovations, education

Abstract

The complicated conditions of the modern economy reduce the effectiveness of traditional instruments for economic regulation. The debt burden of the regions is growing, forcing them to cut spending on medicine and education, thereby, reducing investment in human capital, In these conditions, new economic tools for regional management are necessary, We propose the investment multiplier as such an instrument, The novelty of the research is the investigation of the impact of the investment multiplier on the regional economy as well as in developing an information model for analyzing the regional investment multiplier, We also have developed a model that allows to assess the relationship between the value of the investment multiplier and the structure of the regional economy, We consider the main directions of the analysis of the regional investment multiplier, allowing assessing its structure, dynamics and factors influencing its value, The model is based on the data of regional statistics, This model allows estimating the relationship between the value of the investment multiplier and the structure of the regional economy, We have made the assessment of this relationship for the Central and Far Eastern Federal Districts, The obtained results allowed to reveal the reserves for the economic development of these regions, as well as certain barriers on the way of this development, We have ranked the economic activities of the region by the strength of their influence on the value of the investment multiplier with a view to further managing this value, Applying the obtained results in managing the regional economy will help to avoid a significant deviation of the actual data from the planned values of the key indicators of the regional economy, Managing the value of the investment multiplier will help counteract the economic recession, initiating growth even in relatively difficult economic conditions,

Author Biographies

Sergey Nikolaevich Silvestrov, Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Honored Economist of the Russian Federation, Head of the Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7678-1283 (bld. 3, 22B Tverskaya St., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation; e-mail: silvestrsn@gmail.com).

Vladimir Petrovich Bauer, Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor; Head of the Center for Strategic Forecasting and Planning, Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6612-3797 (bld. 3, 22B Tverskaya St., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation; e-mail: bvp09@mail.ru).

Vladimir Vladimirovich Eremin, Russian State University for the Humanities in the city of Domodedovo; Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Management Disciplines, Branch of the Russian State University for the Humanities in the city of Domodedovo; Leading Researcher, Center for Strategic Forecasting and Planning, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (bld. 2, 4 Kashirskoe Highway, Domodedovo, Moscow Region, 142001; bld. 3, 22B Tverskaya St., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation; e-mail: villy.eremin@gmail.com).

References

Vyshkovskiy, K. V. Novatsii Byudzhetnogo kodeksa Rossiyskoy Federatsii v chasti otsenki dolgovoy ustoychivosti subektov Rossiyskoy Federatsii i munitsipalnykh obrazovaniy [Innovations of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation in the part of assessing the debt sustainability of the subjects of the Russian Federation and municipalities]. Ministerstvo finansov Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation]. Retrieved from: https://www.minfin.ru/ru/press-center/?id_4=34949&area_id=4&page_id=2119&popup=Y (date of access: 12.02.2018). (In Russ.)

Kahn, R. F. (1931). The Relation of Home Investment to Unemployment. Economic Journal, 41, 173–198.

Keynes, J. M. (1999). Obshchaya teoriya zanyatosti, protsenta i deneg [The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money]. Trans. from English by N. N. Lyubimov. Moscow: Gelios ARV Publ., 352. (In Russ.)

Hicks, J. R. (1950). A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 252.

Hіsks, J. R. (1937). Mr. Keynes and the “Classics”. Econometrica, 5(2), 147–159.

Hansen, A. H. (1949). Monetary theory and fiscal policy. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 252.

Harrod, R. (1939). An essay in dynamic theory. Economics Journal, 49(139), 14–33.

Domar, E. (1947). Expansion and Employment. American Economic Review, 37, 34–55.

Samuelson, P. (1939). Interactions between the multiplier analysis and the principle of acceleration. Review of Economic Statistics, 21, 75–78.

Krugman, P. R. & Wells, R. (2012). Economics. New York: Worth Publishers, 1157.

Bragina, U. A. (2012). Raschet effekta multiplikatora — akseleratora dlya investitsionnoy deyatelnosti v Rossii v period s 1995 po 2011 gg [Calculation of the multiplier-accelerator effect for investment activity in Russia in the period from 1995 to 2011]. Aktualnyye problemy gumanitarnykh i estestvennykh nauk [Topical issues of humanities and natural sciences], 11, 107–110. (In Russ.)

Klotsvog, F. N. & Kostin, V. A. (2004). Makrostrukturnye modeli — instrument narodnokhozyaystvennogo prognozirovaniya [Macro-structural models — an tool for economic forecasting]. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Studies on Russian Economic Development], 6, 17–28; 18. (In Russ.)

Koroleva, A. M. (2015). Analiz vozdeystviya multiplikatora i akseleratora na dinamiku natsionalnogo dokhoda [Analysis of the impact of multiplier and accelerator on the dynamics of the national income]. Ekonomika i predprinimatelstvo [Journal of Economy and entrepreneurship], 11(1), 1106–1109. (In Russ.)

Zavodov, S. P. & Dolgopolov, M. V. (2017). Model “zatraty-vypusk” i ee svyaz s multiplikatorom Keynsa [The “input-output” model and its relation to Keynes’s multiplier]. Voprosy nauki i obrazovaniya [Science and Education], 7(8), 54–57. (In Russ.)

Belkin, V. D. (1978). Model “dokhod-tovary” i balans narodnogo khozyaystva [The model “income-goods” and the balance of the national economy]. Moscow: Nauka Publ., 294. (In Russ.)

Tsvetkova, S. N. (2009). Metodicheskiy podkhod k otsenke multiplikativnogo effekta investitsiy v osobye ekonomicheskie zony [Methodical approach to assessing the multiplicative effect of investment in special economic zones]. Regionalnaya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika [Regional Economics: Theory and Practice], 28, 38–44. (In Russ.)

Zavodov, S. P. & Kharitonov, V. V. (2017). Otsenka multiplikativnogo effekta razvitiya innovatsionnykh proektov [Estimation of the multiplicative effect of the development of innovative projects]. Nauchnyy zhurnal [Science Magazine], 6–2 (19), 46–51. (In Russ.)

Sorokina, O. N. (2010). Zarubezhnyy opyt otsenki multiplikativnogo effekta razvitiya turizma [Foreign experience in assessing a multiplier effect of tourism development]. Servis v Rossii i za rubezhom [Services in Russia and Abroad], 3(18), 127–132. (In Russ.)

Laletina, A. S. & Subrakova, L. K. (2015). Multiplikatsionnyy effekt gosudarstvenno-chastnogo partnerstva v sfere pererabotki otkhodov na regionalnom urovne [The multiplier effect of public-privatepartnership in waste managementat the regional level]. Nauchnyye trudy Volnogo ekonomicheskogo obshchestva Rossii [Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia], 194(5), 197–209. (In Russ.)

Eremin, V. V. (2015). Matematicheskiy analiz multiplikatora investitsiy v statike i dinamike [Mathematical analysis of investment multiplier in statics and dynamics]. Ufa: Aeterna Publ., 172. (In Russ.)

Hansen, E. (1997). Ekonomicheskie tsikly i natsionalnyy dokhod [Economic Cycles and National Income]. Klassiki keynsianstva: v 2-kh t. [Classics of Keynesianism in 2 vol.]. Trans. from English by E. G. Leykin, L. Ya. Rozovsky. Moscow: Ekonomika Publ., Vol. 1, 416. (In Russ.)

Gurieva, L. K. (2005). Teoriya diffuzii novovvedeniy [The theory of diffusion of innovations]. Innovatsii [Innovations], 4, 22–26. (In Russ.)

Deves, S., Mensfild, E. & Romeo, A. (1983). The models of Diffusions of Technical Innovation. Leningrad: Pinter Publishers, 218.

Eremin, V. V. (2015). Otsenka velichiny multiplikatora avtonomnykh raskhodov v rossiyskoy ekonomike na osnove regressionnoy modeli [Estimate of the autonomous expenditure multiplier in the Russian economy on the basis of regression model]. Naukovedenie [Naukovedenie], 7(5). Retrieved from: http://naukovedenie.ru/PDF/94EVN515.pdf (date of access: 12.02.2018). doi: 10.15862/94EVN515. (In Russ.)

Downloads

Published

03.12.2018

How to Cite

Silvestrov, S. N., Bauer, V. P., & Eremin, V. V. (2018). Estimation of the Dependence of the Investment Multiplier on the Structure of the Regional Economy. Economy of Regions, 14(4), 1463–1476. https://doi.org/10.17059/2018-4-31

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 4 (2018)

Section

Research articles

License

Copyright (c) 2018 S.N. Silvestrov, V.P. Bauer, V.V. Eremin

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.