Economic risks of development of the Southern macroregion in the context of foreign economic sanctions

Abstract

The article analyzes the economic risks of the development of the Southern macroregion under the conditions of foreign economic sanctions and suggests ways to minimize them. To identify them, the existing classification (blocking, sectoral, hybrid, diplomatic) was supplemented by the author’s by highlighting direct and indirect risks. It is substantiated that indirect ones are the basis for the formation of systematic economic risks, and direct ones are the basis for their own. The methodological basis of the study was the theory of risks and their management. During the study, the authors carried out an inventory of foreign economic sanctions; the resulting economic risks for the development of the socio-economic complex of the Southern macroregion were analyzed; the specifics of the existing system for minimizing the impact of sanctions have been identified. An assessment of the economic risks of the constituent entities of the Southern macroregion is given using the methodology of content analysis of the socio-economic development of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, official ratings of rating agencies and analytical platforms, a statistical method for assessing systematic and own risks based on indices of indicators of socio-economic development of regions is developed. Own risks, in addition to factors determined by the current level of regional development, in the conditions of foreign economic sanctions change under the influence of blocking sanctions, and due to differences in the structure of production - sectoral sanctions. The more investment-attractive a subject of the Russian Federation was before their unprecedented introduction, the less the deterioration of its socio-economic situation occurs. Regional differentiation of the sanctions impact has been identified and it has been substantiated that the dynamics of the external sanctions impact will, other things being equal, largely depend on the nature of the promising projects planned for implementation. The more they are based on the use of dual-use technologies, the greater the impact of sanctions on the region. The authors assessed the measures taken to level out the impact of sanctions; ways to minimize the economic risks of the development of regional socio-economic complexes in new geo-economic and geopolitical conditions have been proposed.