Interregional Migration Links of the Regions of the Russian Arctic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-2-5Keywords:
migration, migration connectivity, sustainability of migration, localization of the population, Arctic, Russian regionsAbstract
To understand current and predict future migration, it is necessary to consider historical trends in migration connectivity of important Arctic regions with other constituent entities of Russia. The article aims to examine migration links between the Arctic and other regions using data from the All-Russian population censuses and statistics on interregional migration of the Federal State Statistics Service for 2007–2010 and 2017–2021. The conducted analysis revealed a decrease in migration mobility of the population, especially in the Russian Arctic. Eight out of nine Arctic regions are characterised by a negative net migration. To describe population localisation, a three-component model was proposed: centres of gravity, regions with independence of mutual localisation, and regions with normal localisation. This model is valid for all Russian regions; additionally, there is a direct connection between in – and out-migration. Analysis of the variation of localisation coefficients showed that migration flows from the Arctic regions have already formed, and incoming flows are more dynamic. The paper proposed a new approach to measuring the stability of migration flows over time based on assessing the coefficient of variation. The regions of the Russian Arctic were classified according to the stability of migration flows: regions with stable migration flows, with mobile migration flows and with unstable migration flows. Statistical analysis of such stability confirmed their stabilisation during the studied period. A hypothesis about the influence of the remoteness of regions on the stability of migration flows was tested, the dependence was observed only within 2 thousand kilometres between regional capitals. The findings present trends of lifelong and long-term migration between the Arctic and other Russian regions and outline the main strategic management directions in the field of interregional migration.
References
Abylkalikov, S. I. (2016). How people move in different countries: the world experience of studying lifelong migration. Pskovskiy regionologicheskiy zhurnal [Pskov Journal of Regional Studies], (1), 45-58. (In Russ.)
Batool, F., & Hennig, C. (2021). Clustering with the Average Silhouette Width. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, (158), 107-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2021.107190
Efremov, I. A. (2016). Present migration processes in the Far North of Russia. Regionologiya [Regionology], (4), 140-159. (In Russ.)
Fauzer, V. V., Lytkina, T. S., & Fauzer, G. N. (2016). Features of population settlement in the Arctic zone of Russia. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika [Arctic: ecology and economy], (2), 40-50. (In Russ.)
Fauzer, V. V., Lytkina, T. S., Fauzer, G. N., & Smirnov, A. V. (2018). The impact of migration on the number and transformation of socio – demographic structures of the population in the Russian North. Izvestiya Komi nauchnogo tsentra UrO RAN [Proceedings of the Komi Science Centre of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences], (4), 111–121. (In Russ.)
Ivanova, M. V., & Klyukina, E. S. (2017). Contemporary preconditions for the future of the Arctic labor resources. Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya: Ekonomicheskie i sotsialnye peremeny [Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes], (6), 180–198. https://doi.org/10.14515/monitoring.2017.6.08 (In Russ.)
Khoteeva, E. A., & Stepus, I. S. (2023). Population migration in the Russian Arctic in statistical estimates and regional management practice. Problemy razvitiya territorii [Problems of territory’s development], 27 (2), 110–128. https://doi.org/10.15838/ptd.2023.2.124.8 (In Russ.)
Korovkin, A. G. (2016). Macroeconomic assessment of the regional labor markets in the European part of the Russian Arctic. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Studies on Russian Economic Development], 27 (1), 74–89. https://doi.org/10.1134/S107570071601007X (In Russ.)
Korovkin, A., & Sinitsa, A. (2019). Assessment of the intensity and directions of population movement in the regions of the Arctic zone of Russia in 1991–2000. Nauchnye trudy: Institut narodnokhozyaystvennogo prognozirovaniya RAN [Scientific Articles — Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences], 17, 323–340. https://doi.org/10.29003/m823.sp_ief_ras2019/323-340 (In Russ.)
Kutovaya, S. V. (2009). Determinant factors and levels of social-spatial localization of the population in the Jewish Autonomous Region. Regionalnye problemy [Regional problems], (12), 63-66. (In Russ.)
Leksin, V. N., & Porfiriev B. N. (2019). The Russian Arctic: The Logic and Paradoxes of Change. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Studies on Russian Economic Development], 30 (6), 4-21. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700719060108 (In Russ.)
Leksin, V. N., & Porfiriev, B. N. (2022). The Other Arctic: Experience in System Diagnostics. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Studies on Russian Economic Development], 33 (1), 34–44. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700722010105 (In Russ.)
Lialina, A. V., Voloshenko, K. Yu., Novikova, A. A., & Farafonova Yu. Yu. (2022). Migration connectivity of Kaliningrad oblast with other Russian regions in the age of geopolitical turbulence. In: Globalnye vyzovy demograficheskomu razvitiyu, ekonomiki UrO RAN. T. 1 [Global Challenges to demographic development. Vol. 1] (pp. 404-417). Ekaterinburg: Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS. https://doi.org/10.17059/udf-2022-3-11 (In Russ.)
Mkrtchyan, N. V. (2021). Population Migration Balance of the Russian North and the Arctic in the 2010s and its Structural Components. Nauchnye trudy: Institut narodnokhozyaystvennogo prognozirovaniya RAN [Scientific Articles — Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences], 19, 304–325. https://doi.org/10.47711/2076-318-2021-304-325 (In Russ.)
Mkrtchyan, N. V., & Gilmanov, R. I. (2022). Migration in the Regions of the Russian Arctic in the 2010s: Horizontal and Vertical Connections. Nauchnye trudy: Institut narodnokhozyaystvennogo prognozirovaniya RAN [Scientific works: Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 20, 182-203. https://doi.org/10.47711/2076-318-2022-182-203 (In Russ.)
Rutherford, A. (2011). Traditional and GLM Approaches to Independent Measures Single Factor ANOVA Designs. In: A. Rutherford (Ed.), Anova and Ancova: A GLM Approach, 2nd ed. (pp. 17-52). John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118491683.ch2
Rybakovskiy, O. L., Tayunova, O. A., & Kozhevnikova, N. I. (2015). Distress migration ties typical regions of the Central Federal District. Mezhdunarodnyy akademicheskiy vestnik [International Academic Bulletin], 5, 71-76. (In Russ.)
Rybakovsky, O. L. (2022). Zakonomernosti i osobennosti mezhregionalnykh migratsionnykh svyazey naseleniya Rossii za 50 let: monografiya [Patterns and features of interregional migration relations of the Russian population over 50 years: a monograph]. Moscow: FCTAS RAS, 471. https://doi.org/10.19181/monogr.978-5-89697-383-6.2021 (In Russ.)
Shelomentsev, A. G., Voronina, L. V., Ukhanova, A. V., & Smirennikova, E. V. (2019). Assessing the impact of population migration on the socio-demographic structure of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Korporativnoe upravlenie i innovatsionnoe razvitie ekonomiki Severa: Vestnik Nauchno-issledovatelskogo tsentra korporativnogo prava, upravleniya i venchurnogo investirovaniya Syktyvkarskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta [Corporate governance and innovative economic development of the North: Bulletin of the Research Center of Corporate Law, Management and Venture Capital of Syktyvkar State University], (3), 83-91. https://doi.org/10.34130/2070–4992-2019-3-83-91 (In Russ.)
Shelomentsev, A. G., Goncharova, K. S., & Voronina, L.V. (2020). Models of migration dynamics of population in the territory of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Upravlenie v sovremennykh sistemakh [Management in modern systems], (4), 52-64. https://doi.org/10.24411/2311–1313-2020–10012 (In Russ.)
Skufina, T. P., Samarina, V. P., Baranov, S. V., & Bazhutova, E. А. (2021). Socio-Demographic Processes in the Russian Arctic in Statistical Assessments and Population Surveys. Arktika i Sever [Arctic and North], (45), 127–149. https://doi.org/10.37482/issn2221–2698.2021.45.127 (In Russ.)
Smirnov, A. (2022). Digital traces of the population as a data source on migration flows in the Russian Arctic. Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review], 9 (2), 42–64. https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v9i2.16205 (In Russ.)
Stepus, I. S., Gurtov, V. A., & Averyanov, A. O. (2022). Population migration for the development of the Russian Arctic: Features and capabilities. Regional Research of Russia, 12 (4), 483–494. https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079970522700149
Ukhanova, A. V., Smirennikova, E. V., & Voronina, L. V. (2021). Classification of migration factors of the Russian Arctic population. Fundamentalnye issledovaniya [Fundamental research], (4), 123-129. https://doi.org/10.17513/fr.43011 (In Russ.)
Volkov, A. D., Simakova, A. V., & Tishkov, S. V. (2022). Spatial differentiation of migration factors in the Arctic region (case study of the Karelian Arctic). Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiya [Region: Economics and Sociology], (3), 155-186. https://doi.org/10.15372/REG20220307 (In Russ.)
Vorobieva, O. D., Topilin, A. V., Grebenyuk, A. A., & Lebedeva, T. V. (2016). The analysis of migration processes in Russia according to the census. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of Region], 12 (1), 175-188 (In Russ.)
Zaikov, K., Katorin, I., & Tamitskii, A. (2018). Migration attitudes of the students enrolled in arctic-focused higher education programs. Ekonomicheskie i sotsialnye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz [Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast], 11 (3), 230-247. https://doi.org/10.15838/esc.2018.3.57.15 (In Russ.)
Zamyatina, N. Yu., & Pilyasov, A. N. (2019). Kak nam obustroit Arktiku [How do we equip the Arctic]. Izdatelskie resheniya, 86. (In Russ.)
Zamyatina, N. Yu., Elmanova, D. S., Poturaeva, A. V., Akimova, V. V., Alov, I. N., Kiselev, I. V., Lovyagin, K. D., Mazur, V. A., Nenenko, A. V., Petrova, A. N., Plekhanov, I. V., Ryapuhina, V. N., & Khusainova, A. S. (2019). Specific features of migration situation in Belgorod region: factors of increased attractiveness for migrants from the northern regions of Russia. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 5: Geografiya [Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5, Geography], (5), 97-107. (In Russ.)
Zamyatina, N. Yu., & Yashunsky, A. D. (2014). Migrations from the North: social networks and mental ‘proximity’. In: Vneekonomicheskie faktory prostranstvennogo razvitiya: Sbornik statey, Pushkin (Tsarskoe Selo), 04–08 iyunya 2014 goda [Non-economic factors of spatial development: Collection of articles, Pushkin (Tsarskoe Selo), June 04–08, 2014] (pp. 147-173). Institute of Geography. (In Russ.)
Zamyatina N. Yu. (2016). Symbolic capital of a territory in the context of arctic migrations: a view from Norilsk. Etnograficheskoe obozrenie, (4), 45-59. (In Russ.)
Zamyatina, N. Yu., & Liarskaya, E. V. (2022). The people of the Arctic in the space of Russia: interdisciplinary approaches to the translocal communities. Vestnik arkheologii, antropologii i etnografii [Bulletin of Archeology, Anthropology and Ethnography], (2), 210-221. https://doi.org/10.20874/2071–0437-2022-57-2-17 (In Russ.)
Zamyatina, N., & Goncharov, R. (2022). “Agglomeration of flows”: Case of migration ties between the Arctic and the southern regions of Russia. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 14 (1), 63–85. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12389
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Аверьянов Александр Олегович , Ирина Степусь
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
