Assessment of Economic Growth Prospects in Russian Regions Considering Import Sanctions

Abstract

Sanctions restrictions and external pressure on the Russian economy resulted in significant transformations of cooperative foreign relations. Such developments require adaptive mechanisms to ensure sustainable economic growth at the macro- and meso-levels. In this regard, various studies aim to develop methodologies for building macroeconomic models adapted to institutional and market changes. The present article tries to solve this problem by proposing and testing approaches to the assessment of regional economic growth prospects by simulation modelling of localisation of transnational chains of foreign final and intermediate goods. It is assumed that there are critical imports to the region, which form the core of sustainable development risks considering changes in cross-border supplies. The methods of systematisation and grouping of regional economic risks due to import restrictions are utilised. Additionally, the study applies the correlation and regression and structural analysis to determine the impact of disturbances in economic relations on sustainable development of individual economic sectors of regions, formation of gross regional product (GRP) and growth prospects of the national economy. The case of the Republic of Tatarstan was examined. According to the negative scenario, which assumes the total restriction of critical import supplies to Tatarstan and inefficient use of import substitution mechanisms, a slowdown in the regional economy (-6.9 % of GRP) can be expected. The obtained estimates on the scale of Tatarstan determine the slowdown in Russia’s gross domestic product growth rates by 0.23 %. Projecting of the results to all Russian regions predicts a slowdown of 1.28 % of GDP for the whole country, which is within acceptable risks. The results can be used to develop adaptive mechanisms for state management of regional economy in the context of systemic transformations.