Macroeconomic Determinants of the Entrepreneurial Activity at Different Business Cycle Phases
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-4-10Keywords:
entrepreneurial activity, enterprise, russian regions, determinants, business cycle, econometric modeling, panel data analysis, survival analysis, acyclity, stabilityAbstract
Nowadays, the Russian economy is facing the crisis. Thus it becomes important to create a favorable environment for the formation of local sustainable economic growth and positive expectations in the business sector. The existing literature in this field focuses on macroeconomic determinants of the entrepreneurial activity and does not investigate the effect of the business cycle on firms' decision making. On the contrary, this paper concentrates on Russian regions and identifies the key business cycle factors shaping the entrepreneurial activity both at the regional and the firm-specific levels. The analysis combines aggregate series on 83 regions in 2005-2014 with microeconomic data provided by “SPARK-Interfax”. In particular, we considered 200 companies in 4 regions of Russia during 2005-2014. Special attention is paid to testing of research hypotheses concerning dynamics of enterprise activity on various phases of business cycle. The identification strategy is built on panel data analysis, as well as survival analysis. We find that the aggregate entrepreneurial activity responds to changes in the regional economic environment with a lag. Moreover, it shows some acyclicity. On average, firms that were organized during the downward phase of the business cycle are more stable (i.e. have a high survival rate). This can be explained with a stronger financial resistance and their experience of operating under uncertainty. Based on these findings, we formulate policy recommendations. In particular, we propose to develop a regional “business map” that would reflect the key features of Russian territories.References
Hansen, A. (1964). Business Cycles and National Income. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 746.
Migalkina, A. L. (2015). Sushchnost malogo predprinimatelstva [The essence of small business]. Mezhdunarodnyy nauchno-issledovatelskiy zhurnal [International Research Journal], 1–2, 64–65. (In Russ.)
Burns, A. F. & Wesley, C. M. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 550.
Vladimirsky, B. M., Martynyuk, V. S. & Temuryanets, N. V. (2008). U prirody net plokhoy pogody. Kosmicheskaya pogoda v nashey zhizni [There is no bad weather. Space weather in our life]. Kiev: 212. (In Russ.)
Shaytova, N. Zh. (2013). Ekonomicheskiy tsikl i ego fazy [Economic cycles and its phases]. Ekonomicheskie nauki [Economic Sciences], 10, 1–2. (In Russ.)
Kondratyev, N. D. (1925). Bolshie tsikly konyunktury [Big sycles of conjuncture]. Voprosy konyunktury [Issues of Business Environment], 1(1), 28–79. (In Russ.)
Schumpeter, J. A. (1939). Business Cycles. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1, 250.
Podkorytov, V. N. (2014). Ekonomicheskie tsikly. Teoreticheskie vyvody ili prakticheskie rezultaty [Economic cycles: theoretical conclusions or practical results]. Izvestiya Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo gornogo universiteta [News of the Ural State Mining University], 4(36), 63–66. (In Russ.)
Okunev, O. B. (2011). Dinamicheskoye modelirovanie makroekonomicheskikh sistem: endogennye modeli N. Kaldora i M. Kaletskogo [Dynamic modeling of macroeconomic systems: N. Kaldor and M. Kaletsky’s endogenous models]. Vestnik MGIMO Universiteta [MGIMO Review of International Relations], 1, 201–205. (In Russ.)
Nosonov, A. M. (2012). Kontseptualnyye osnovy tsiklicheskogo razvitiya [Conceptual basics of cyclic development]. Pskovskiy regionologicheskiy zhurnal [Pskov Regional Journal], 14, 36–47. (In Russ.)
Mastromarco, C. & Woitek, U. (2007). Regional business cycles in Italy. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 52, 907–918. DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2007.04.013.
Boshi, M. & Girardi, A. (2011). The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America’s business cycle. Economic Modelling, 28, 1235–1246 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.01.002.
Kydland, F. & Prescott, E. (1982). Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations. Econometrica, 50 (Nov.), 1345–1370. DOI: 10.2307/1913386.
Lucas, R. E. (1976). Econometric Policy Evaluation. A Critique. Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, 1, 19–46.
Bande, R., Fernandez, M. & Montuenga, V. (2008). Regional unemployment in Spain: Disparities, business cycle and wage setting. Labour Economics, 15, 885–914. DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2007.07.009.
Dubovsky, D. L., Kofanov, D. A. & Sosunov, K. A. (2015). Datirovka rossiyskogo biznes-tsikla [Dating of the Russian Business Cycle]. Ekonomicheskiy zhurnal VShE [The HSE Economic Journal], 4, 36–41. (In Russ.)
Voynova, S. I. & Savelyeva, I. P. (2012). Otsenka predprinimatelskoy aktivnosti. Sushchnost i vidy ekonomicheskoy deyatelnosti [Evaluation of business activity: essence and types of economic activities]. Sovremennyye problemy nauki i obrazovaniya [Modern problems of science and education], 1, 33–41. (In Russ.)
Verkhovskaya, O. R. & Dorokhina, M. V. (2008). Issledovaniya predprinimatelstva v Rossii v ramkakh Globalnogo monitoringa predprinimatelstva: osnovnye rezultaty 2006–2007 gg. [Entrepreneurial Research in Russia: Main Results of Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2006–2007]. Vestnik SpbGU [Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University], 3, 15–29. (Series: Management). (In Russ.)
Tumilevich, E. N. (2012). Faktory i formy razvitiya malogo predprinimatelstva v regione [Factors and forms of the development of small business in the region]. Nauchnyye tekhnologii [Scientific Technologies]. Modern Science: actual problems of theory and practice], 1, 12–19. (Series: Economics and Law). (In Russ.)
Ignatyeva, E. D. & Mariev, O. S. (2013). Metodologiya i instrumentariy strukturno-funktsionalnogo analiza regionalnogo razvitiya [Methodology attitude and instruments for structural and functional analysis of the regional development]. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of Region], 1, 226–237. (In Russ.)
Korneva, E. V. & Koren, A. V. (2013). Analiz sushchestvuyushchikh podkhodov k opredeleniyu predprinimatelskoy aktivnosti [Analysis of existing approaches to defining entrepreneurial activity]. Naukovedenie [Scientific open access journal “Naukovedenie”], 6(19), 3–5. Retrieved from: https://naukovedenie.ru/PDF/123EVN613.pdf (In Russ.)
Akhtyamov, M. K. & Gonchar, E. A. (2013). Sovremennyye problemy razvitiya predprinimatelstva v Rossii. Vestnik Yuzhno-Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta [South Ural State University Bulletin], 7(3), 12–23. (Series: Economics and Management). (In Russ.)
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2017 Anastasia Leonidovna Antsygina, Aleksey Nikolaevich Zhukov, Anastasia Evgenyevna Sypchenko
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
