Coastal Natural and Economic Systems of the Pechora-Kara Region in the Context of Climate Change Risks

Abstract

The Pechoro-Kara region occupies a special place in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation as the centre of hydrocarbon exploration, which is the main Russian export. At the same time, this is the area with the highest climate risks on the Arctic coast of Russia. The study aims to estimate the value of buildings and structures planned for construction as part of large investment projects in the coastal areas of the Pechora and Kara Seas by the mid-21st century. Regulatory documents, data from official websites and investment portals of various companies and public authorities were examined to create a database of 36 investment projects in the mining and manufacturing industries, transport scheduled to be commissioned in 2017–2050. The authors’ method analyses the time series of indicators of investment in fixed capital and new fixed assets, as well as the structure of fixed assets in the examined industries. Calculations reveal that after the construction phase of each of the projects under consideration, new fixed assets amounting to 8.2 trillion roubles are expected. These include buildings and structures of the mining industry (approximately 6.2 trillion roubles), transport (0.8 trillion roubles), manufacturing industry (0.1 trillion roubles). As an example, the obtained results were compared with the forecast of thermal abrasion and ice-gouging hazards on the coasts of the Pechora and Kara seas. The estimated value of fixed assets that will be located in areas of maximum risk is about 4 trillion roubles (in 2023 prices). This finding confirms the urgent need for early implementation of adaptation protective measures during the construction and operation of infrastructure in order to minimise potential damage.