Assessment of Path Dependence Parameters in Technological Innovation across Russia’s Regions

Abstract

The dynamics of technological innovation in regional industries across Russia show significant spatial and temporal disparities. This variation underscores the importance of studying the parameters of innovation path dependence. This study evaluates the role of innovation path dependence and the current level of economic development in driving industrial innovation across various regions of Russia. Using a dynamic autoregressive model, this study examined the current innovation costs and outputs of industrial enterprises as functions of both innovation path dependence (measured by previous values) and the current economic development level (measured by gross regional product) across a panel of 70 Russian regions from 2000 to 2020, with detailed analyses for federal districts and periods 2000–2005, 2006–2010, 2011–2015, and 2016–2020. Results show that most Russian regions manifested a positive innovation path dependence only between 2011 and 2020. Conversely, from 2000 to 2005, some regions exhibited a negative path dependence, which hindered innovation growth. Throughout the entire 2000–2020 period, a region’s current economic development level was found to be a more influential factor in driving innovation than path dependence. The study concludes that the influence of innovation path dependence and regional economic development on innovation output was mainly a compromise—only one factor had a significant impact at a given time. This indicates that innovative enterprises across Russia are vulnerable. However, industries in the Urals and Siberia are an exception; in these regions, the factors at play consistently work together positively, making a substantial contribution to the success of innovation projects. These findings can provide insights into the spatial and temporal economic mechanisms driving innovative development in Russian regions.