Assessment of Energy Supply to the Yamal Peninsula Based on Fuzzy Multicriteria Analysis
Keywords:pre-project research, multicriteria analysis, fuzzy sets, Saaty scale, expert opinions, infrastructure of new development areas in the Arctic, energy sources
Provision of useful energy is the most important condition for realising the potential of underdeveloped regions. For new development areas, including the Yamal Peninsula, there are various energy alternatives. Based on well-known basic approaches, the article proposes a procedure for formalising the analysis of alternatives mostly using qualitative initial data. At the pre-project stage, limited and fuzzy information (predominantly in the form of expert opinions) is accessible. To achieve our goal, six criteria for export assessment were selected and further processed using fuzzy multicriteria decision-making models based on fuzzy multicriteria analysis of alternatives in order to formalise logical reasoning with vague or imprecise statements. Due to insufficient measurements for constructing fuzzy sets, linguistic estimates of intuitive or logical pairwise comparisons were formalised using the Bellman–Zadeh model, the Saaty scale and the construction of membership functions. The fuzzy set was obtained by finding the eigenvector and the largest eigenvalue for the pairwise comparison matrix. Implementation of the maximin criterion along with the concession matrix allowed selecting alternatives when obtaining the same or similar estimates. As a result, the study showed the priority of diversification of primary energy source to provide useful energy to consumers in Yamal. The most preferable source is atomic energy. In second place are gas turbine technologies, which are significantly ahead of wind energy sources. Diesel generators are considered the least favourable. Thus, the results of fuzzy modelling correspond with the explanatory factors of choice. The research findings can be used to prepare comprehensive strategies and schemes for location of industries and the energy infrastructure in remote Arctic territories.
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