Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-7Keywords:
pension provision, pension insurance, pension system, insurance pension, funded pension, pension fund, insurance premiums, risk, actuarial estimation, demographic processes, incomes, population expendituresAbstract
The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy - in the long term.References
Dawson, W. H. (1912). Social insurance in Germany, 1883–1911. London: Fisher Unwin, 232, 16.
Beveridge, W. H. (1936). Planning under Socialism and other Addresses. London: Longmans, 142.
Beveridge, J. (1954). Beveridge and his plan. London: Hodder and Stoughton, 239.
Arkhipov, A. P., Bazanov, A. N., Belozerov, S. A. et al. Strakhovanie i upravlenie riskami. Problemy i perspektivy [Insurance and risk management. Problems and prospects]. Moscow: Prospekt Publ., 528. (In Russ).
Lushnikova, M. V. & Lushnikov, A. M. (2009). Kurs prava sotsialnogo obespecheniya [Course of the right for social security]. Moscow: Yustitsinform Publ., 656. (In Russ.)
Seleev, S. (2016). Russkaya soslovnaya pensiya [Russian class pension]. Kommersant. Dengi [Kommersant. Money], 10–12. (In Russ.)
Aizinova, I. M. (2010). Pensionnoye obespechenie metodom “prob i oshibok” [Pension security by “trial and error”]. Nauchnyye trudy. Institut narodnokhozyaystvennogo prognozirovaniya RAN [Scientific works. Institute of economic forecasting of RAS], 8, 562–586. (In Russ.)
Domnina, O. L. (2015). Reformirovanie obyazatelnogo pensionnogo strakhovaniya kak vozmozhnost razvitiya dobrovolnogo strakhovaniya zhizni [Reforming of compulsory pension insurance as possibility for the development of voluntary life insurance]. Strakhovoye pravo [Insurance Law], 4(69), 7–11. (In Russ.)
Solovyev, A. K. (2015). Pensionnaya reforma. Illyuzii i realnost: uchebnoye posobie [Pension reform. Illusions and reality: textbook]. Moscow: Prospekt Ave., 336. (In Russ.)
Roik, V. D. (2005). Osnovy sotsialnogo strakhovaniya [Bases of social insurance]. Moscow: Ankil Publ., 256. (In Russ.)
Solovyev, A. K., Dontsova, S. A., Kuvalkina, E. A. et al. (2003). Aktuarnaya model razvitiya pensionnoy sistemy Rossii [Actuarial model of the development of pension system of Russia]. Moscow: GU VShE Publ., 30. (In Russ.)
Baskakov, V. N., Lelchuk, A. L. & Pomazkin, D. V. (2002). Aktuarnaya ekspertiza pensionnoy sistemy Rossii [Actuarial examination of pension system of Russia]. Sotsialnyy vestnik pensionnykh i sotsialnykh fondov stran SNG i Baltii [Social bulletin of pension and social funds of CIS and Baltic countries], 1(7), 3–19. (In Russ.)
Budko, S. A. (2016). Formalnyye usloviya sbalansirovannosti raspredelitelnoy pensionnoy sistemy [Formal Conditions for Equationof the Unfunded Pension Scheme]. Baikal Research Journal, 7(2), 40–47.
Solovyev, A. K. (2014). Pensionnaya mifologiya. Pensionnaya reforma i makroekonomika [Pension mythology. Pension reform and macroeconomic]. SPERO, 19, 31–58. (In Russ.)
Kudrin, A. & Gurvich, E. (2012). Starenie naseleniya i ugroza byudzhetnogo krizisa [Aging of the population and threat for the budgetary crisis]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 3, 52–79. (In Russ.)
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. & Malaney, P. (2000). Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia. Population and Development Review, 26, 257–290.
Tyers, R. & Shi, Q. (2007). Global Demographic Change, Policy Responses and Their Economic Implications. The World Economy, 30(4), 537–566.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2017 Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin, Svetlana Evgenyevna Shipitsyna
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
