Methodology of Assessing the Impact of Economic Uncertainty on the Formation of the Regional Budgets' Revenues
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17059/2019-3-22Keywords:
economic uncertainty, budget revenues, regional budget, federal constituent entity, methodology, revenue potential, tax potential, uncertainty factor, administration, budgetary risksAbstract
The sharp increase of the impact of economic uncertainty causes the decrease in the stability of the revenue bases of the constituent entities' budgets. An analysis of domestic and foreign theory and practice leads to the conclusion that there is no systematic research on this topic. Moreover, the budget revenue management does not take into account the impact of economic uncertainty due to the lack of relevant methodology. We hypothesise that the existing approaches to assessment primarily aim at analysing the formation of corporate financial resources in the context of economic uncertainty. That peculiarity does not allow adapting these approaches to the study of the economy's public sector and the state budget system. Based on the identified characteristics of economic uncertainty, we compiled a comprehensive assessment methodology using a number of statistical methods. This required the development of a new methodology for assessing the regional budgets revenue potential and a methodology for assessing the impact of the classified factors of economic uncertainty. The identified types of budget revenues played an important role in establishing the methodology. The developed mathematical model logically linked the indicated methods and the revenues typology. The model presupposes calculation of the aggregate impact of economic uncertainty based on the methods of linear algebra. We tested the methodology on the example of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the Central Federal District. The testing has allowed establishing and quantifying the link between the regional budgets' revenue structure, the impact of economic uncertainty and the budgets' stability. In addition, based on the obtained results, we proposed the development of a special roadmap and specific tool for monitoring the impact of economic uncertainty on the regional budgets' revenues. The developed methodology can be used both in the practical activities of the regional financial authorities (including Federal Tax Service of Russia) and in scientific research.References
Alandarov, R. A. (2014). Rezervy rosta dokhodnoy bazy byudzhetov byudzhetnoy sistemy Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Reserves of growth of budget income base in the Russian Federation budgetary system]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya [Financial Analytics: Science and Experience], 43(229), 27–39. (In Russ.)
Balynin, I. V. (2016). Vvedenie progressivnogo nalogooblozheniya dokhodov fizicheskikh lits v Rossiyskoy Federatsii v kontekste obespecheniya sotsialnoy spravedlivosti [Introducing the progressive taxation of personal income in the Russian Federation from the social justice perspective]. Finansy i kredit [Finance and Credit], 31(703), 15–31. (In Russ.)
Vasyunina, M. L. (2016). Mezhbyudzhetnye transferty subektam Rossiyskoy Federatsii: Sovremennye problemy i prioritety [Intergovernmental transfers for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation: contemporary issues and priorities]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya [Financial Analytics: Science and Experience], 45(327), 17–27. (In Russ.)
Gorlova, O. S. (2015). Byudzetnaya politika Rossiyskoy Federatsii v oblasti dokhodov byudzhetov: Sovershenstvovanie mekhanizma realizatsii [Budgetary policy of the Russian Federation in the field of budget incomes: improvement the realization mechanism]. Ekonomika i predprinimatelstvo [Journal of economy and entrepreneurship], 10–2(63), 431–435. (In Russ.)
Cliffe Leslie, T. E. (1888). The Known and the Unknown in the economic world. London: Longmans, 223.
Knight, F. (2003). Risk, neopredelennost, pribyl [Risk, Uncertainty and Profit]. Trans. from English. Moscow: Delo, 360. (In Russ.)
Dumnaya, N. N. (2013). Informatsionnaya ekonomika: Usilenie ekonomicheskikh riskov [Information economy: economic risk escalation]. Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo [Economics, taxes & law], 4, 13–19. (In Russ.)
Keynes, J. M. (1937). The General Theory of Employment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 5(2), 214.
Arrow, К. (1995). Informatsiya i ekonomicheskoe povedenie [Information and Economic Behavior]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 5, 98. (In Russ.)
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 555
Funtowicz, S. O. & Ravetz, J. R. (1990). Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy. Dordrecht, Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 231.
Winkler, R. L. (1996). Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 54, 127–132.
Stewart, T. R. (2000). Uncertainty, judgment, and error in prediction. Prediction: Science, Decision Making and the Future of Nature. Washington, DC: Island Press, 400.
Goodman, D. (2010). Extrapolation in risk assessment: improving the quantification of uncertainty, and improving information to reduce the uncertainty. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 8, 177–192. DOI: 10.1080/20028091056818/
Walker, W. E., Harremoës, P., Rotmans, J., van der Sluijs, J. P., van Asselt, M. B. A., Janssen, P. & Krayer von Krauss, M. P. (2003). Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support. Integrated Assessment, 4, 5–17. DOI: 10.1076/iaij.4.1.5.16466
Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J. H. & Walker, W. E. (2013). Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A New Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a Deeply Uncertain World. Global Environmental Change, 23(2), 485–498. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006.
Hallegatte, S., Shah, A., Lempert, R., Brown, C. & Gill, S. (2012). Investment Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty Application to Climate Change. The World Bank. Working paper, 2. DOI: 10.1596/1813–9450–6193.
Swanson, D. A., Barg, S., Tyler, S., Venema, H., Tomar, S., Bhadwal, S., Nair, S., Roy, D. & Drexhage, J. (2010). Seven tools for creating adaptive policies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, 924–939. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.005.
Dessai, S. & Hulme, M. (2007). Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: a case study on water resources management in the East of England. Global Environmental Change, 17, 59–72. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.005.
Thunnisen, D. P. (2005). Propagating and mitigating uncertainty in the design of complex multidisciplinary systems: [PhD thesis]. California Institute of Technology, 261.
Avdiysky, V. I. & Bezdenezhnykh, V. M. (2011). Neopredelennost, izmenchivost i protivorechivost v zadachakh analiza riskov povedeniya ekonomicheskikh system [Uncertainty, changeability and inconsistency in tasks of analyzing risks of economic systems behavior]. Effektivnoe antikrizisnoe upravlenie [Effective crisis management], 3(66), 46–61. (In Russ.)
Kuzmin, E. A. (2012). Neopredelennost i opredelnnost v upravlenii organizatsionno-ekonomicheskimi sistemami [Uncertainty and certainty in management of organizational-economic systems]. Ekaterinburg: Institute of economics UB RAS Publ., 184. (In Russ.)
Shannon, C. E. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27, 379–423.
Gorokhova, D. V. (2013). Upravlenie byudzhetnymi riskami subektov Rossiyskoy Federatsii na sovremennom etape upravleniya gosudarstvennymi finansami [Budget risk management of the subjects of the Russian Federation at the modern stage of public finance management]. Upravlenie riskom [Risk management], 1, 22–27. (In Russ.)
Kosov, M. E. (2018). Analiz riskov poteri dokhodov byudzhetnoy sistemy Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Risk analysis the loss of revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation]. Nauchnye vedomosti Belgorodskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Ekonomika. Informatika [Research Bulletin of Belgorod State University. Economics. Informatics], 1(45), 59–66. DOI: 10.18413/2411–3808–2018–45–1-59–66 (In Russ.)
Rodger, C. & Petch, J. (1999). Uncertainty and risk analysis: a practical guide from Business Dynamics. UK: PricewaterhouseCoopers United Kingdom firm, 50.
Solyannikova, S. P. (2016). Otvetstvennaya byudzhetnaya politika v usloviyakh vysokogo urovnya neopredelennosti: pravila razrabotki i kriterii otsenki [Responsible budget policy under the conditions of the high level of uncertainty: rules of development and evaluation criteria]. Innovatsionnoe razvitie ekonomiki [Innovative development of economy], 3–2(33), 91–96. (In Russ.)
Lozhechko, A. S. (2017). Effektivnoe i otvetstvennoe upravlenie ekonomicheskimi byudzhetnymi riskami formirovaniya dokhodov byudzhetov subektov Rossiyskoy Federatsii v usloviyakh ekonomicheskoy neopredelennosti [Effective and responsible management of economic budget risks of regional budgets revenue formation in the Russian Federation in conditions of economic uncertainty]. Ekonomika: Vchera, segodnya, zavtra [Economics: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow], 7(3А), 197–213. (In Russ.)
Senkov, M. I. (2012). Osnovnye kanaly mezhgosudarstvennogo rasprostraneniya finansovykh krizisov v usloviyakh finansovoy globalizatsii [Basic channels of the interstate contagion of financial crises in the context of the financial globalization]. Izvestiya Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta, 2, 197–200. (In Russ.)
Fedorova, E. A. & Bezruk, O. (2011). Analiz i otsenka kanalov rasprostraneniya finansovykh krizisov na razvivayushchikhsya rynkakh [The Channels of Financial Crisis Transmission in Emerging Markets]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 7, 120–128. (In Russ.)
Fedorova, E. A. & Afanasiev, D. O. (2014). Opredelenie kanalov rasprostraneniya krizisnykh situatsiy v RF [Transmission channels of crisis situations in the Russian Federation and their identification]. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Studies on Russian Economic Development], 5(146), 100–111. (In Russ.)
Huang, Zh., Tong, Ch., Qiu, H. & Shen, Y. (2018). The spillover of macroeconomic uncertainty between the U.S. and China. Economics Letters, 171, 123–127. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.07.018.
Caiazza, S., Cotugno, M., Fiordelisi, F. & Stefanelli, V. (2018). The spillover effect of enforcement actions on bank risk-taking. Journal of Banking & Finance, 91, 146–159. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.04.008.
Aastveit, K. A., Natvik, G. J. & Sola, S. (2013). Economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Norges Bank Resaerch. Working paper, 17, 2.
Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623–685. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248.
Bloom, N., Floetotto, M., Jaimovich, N., Saporta-Eksten, I. & Terry, S. J.. (2018). Really Uncertain Business Cycles. Econometrica, 86(3), 1031–1065. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA10927.
Belostotzkaya, V. A. (2003). Sistemnyy podkhod k izmereniyu nalogovoy nagruzki [A systematic approach to measuring the tax burden]. Finansy [Finance], 3, 36 — 37. (In Russ.)
Bagdanova, L. V. (2013). Vliyanie mobilizatsii nalogovogo potentsiala SZFO na formirovanie dokhodnoy chasti byudzhetov [The impact of mobilizing the tax potential of the NFD on the formation of the revenue side of budgets]. Teoriya i praktika servisa: Ekonomika, sotsialnaya sfera, tekhnologii, 1(15), 267–274. (In Russ.)
Prokopenko, R. A. (2007). Ponyatie i rol nalogovogo potentsiala v ekonomicheskom razvitii regiona [The concept and the role of tax potential in the economic development of the region]. Sovremennye naukoemkie tekhnologii [Modern high technologies], 12, 101–103. (In Russ.)
Dombrovskii, E. A. (2013). Dokhodnyy potentsial regiona i napravleniya ego maksimizatsii [Income potential of a region and direction for its maximization]. Vestnik Finansovogo Universiteta [The Bulletin of the Financial University], 2, 130–139. (In Russ.)
Galukhin, A. V. (2015). Riski razvitiya dokhodnogo potentsiala regionov SZFO [Risks in the development of the revenue potential of the northwestern federal district regions]. Problemy razvitiya terrirorii [Problems of territory’s development], 4(78), 157–171. (In Russ.)
Lozhechko, A. S. (2016). Dokhodnyy potentsial kak element sistemy upravlenitya dokhodami regionalnogo byudzheta v usloviyakh ekonomicheskoy neopredelennsti [Revenue potential as an element of the revenue management of the regional budget of the Russian Federation in terms of economic uncertainty]. Ekonomika i upravlenie: Problemy, resheniya [Economics and management: problems, solutions], 11–1, 174–181. (In Russ.)
Musienko, S. O., Fedorova, E. A. & Fedorov, F. Yu. (2018). Analiz effektivnosti gosudarstvenooy podderzhki malykh predpriyatiy v subektakh RF [Efficiency Analysis of the State Support of Small Enterprises in the Subjects of the Russian Federation]. EKO [ECO], 2(524), 131–138. (In Russ.)
Giniyatullin, F. K. (2010). Sovremennye problemy i osobennosti opredeleniya sushchnosti ponyatiya “nalogovoe administrirovanie” v Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Modern problems and features of definition the nature of notion “tax administration” in Russia]. Vestnik Yuzhno-Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya “Pravo” [Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Series “Law”], 5(181), 93–96. (In Russ.)
Lewina, O. A. (2012). Nekotorye voprosy finansovo-pravovykh pravootnosheniy, voznikayushchikh v protsesse administrirovaniya dokhodov federalnogo byudzheta [Some questions of the financial legal relationship arising in the course of administration of incomes of the federal budget]. Biznes v zakone [Business in Law], 1, 185–188. (In Russ.)
Lozhechko, A. S. (2017). Kriterii otbora finansovo-ekonomicheskikh indikatorov dlya otsenki vliyaniya faktorov ekonomicheskoy neopredelennosti v ramkakh upravleniya dokhodami regionalnykh byudzhetov [Selection criteria economic and financial indicators to assess the impact of economic factors uncertainty in the revenue management of regional budgets]. Konkurentosposobnost v globalnom mire. Ekonomika, nauki, tekhnologii [Competitiveness in the Global World: Economics, Science, Technology], 3(5), 103–107. (In Russ.)
Buzdalina, O. B. (2017). Sovershenstvovanie metodologicheskikh podkhodov k formirovaniyu dokhodov byudzhetov subektov Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Improvement of methodological approaches to the formation of revenues of budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation]. Finansovaya zhizn [Financial Life], 4, 74–78. (In Russ.)
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2019 Elena Valentinovna Markina, Olga Aleksandrovna Polyakova, Aleksandr Sergeevich Lozhechko
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
