Incorporating Demographic Indicators into Human Development Assessment under Kazakhstan’s Demographic Transition Model

Abstract

While human development is commonly measured through indicators like the health index in the Human Development Index (HDI), for Kazakhstan — with its pronounced regional demographic disparities — a broader set of demographic indicators is required. This study introduces a methodology to incorporate demographic indicators into human development assessments within the framework of Kazakhstan’s demographic transition model. The article outlines criteria for selecting relevant demographic indicators aligned with human development concepts, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and regional demographic characteristics while avoiding redundancy. We propose a methodology that uses a Demographic Development Index (DDI) to calculate a correction factor, which adjusts the health component of the HDI based on key indicators of the demographic transition. The DDI construction follows established methods for composite indices as used in global Human Development Reports and is divided into three sub-indices reflecting different depths of demographic analysis: general coefficients, specialized indicators, and population structure metrics. Applying this methodology to 2023 data demonstrates its effectiveness in capturing regional demographic development and transition dynamics. The observed regional variation in the adjusted index reached a factor of 2.1 between minimum and maximum values. These results can inform analyses of demographic and human development processes in Kazakhstan’s regions and offer a useful tool for researchers evaluating human development at national and international levels.