Economy of Regions

Spatial Scientometrics in Measuring the Geography of Knowledge and Innovation: The Case of India

Andrey Mikhaylov — 2025-06-30

The global landscape of science, technology, and innovation (STI) is increasingly shifting toward developing countries. China and India—two Asian economies with fast-growing innovation sectors—are at the forefront of this process, yet the regional dimension of their knowledge economies, especially in India, remains insufficiently studied. This article examines territorial and sectoral patterns of knowledge production and commercialization across Indian states, applying a spatial scientometric approach. The analysis draws on data from Scopus, Intellectual Property India, and the National Manufacturing Innovation Survey (2017–2022), aligned with India’s national development priorities. The study explores how regional scientific output relates to inventive and innovation activity. The results show a strong positive link between scientific productivity and both patenting and innovation, with a particularly strong connection between regional knowledge production and inventive activity. The strength of this link varies by field: the spatial distribution of patents closely aligns with publication centres in natural sciences, life sciences, and medicine, but shows the weakest association with arts and humanities. Innovation indicators—such as India’s Industrial Innovation Index and the number of innovative firms—are most strongly linked to output in life sciences and medicine as well as social sciences and management. These findings underscore the potential of scientometric indicators to complement traditional measures of innovation, particularly in data-scarce regional contexts. They offer empirical support for integrating bibliometric data into regional STI assessments and for forecasting innovation potential at the subnational level.

Export Potential of Samara Oblast (Russia) in Trade with Friendly Countries

Ivan D. Rakov — 2025-06-30

In response to sanctions imposed on Russia, there is an urgent need to reorient the country’s export flows toward new markets and diversify its product mix. This necessity is especially acute at the regional level, where the assessment of export potential can help identify new opportunities and inform development strategies. This study evaluates the export potential of Samara Oblast in trade with 82 countries over the period 2005–2021. The analysis focuses on two key commodity groups: fertilizers (HS Code 31) and electrical machinery and equipment (HS Code 85). The research proceeds in two stages. First, a gravity model of international trade is estimated using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method to account for zero trade flows and heteroskedasticity. Second, the model’s coefficients are used to predict the region’s export potential. The results reveal pronounced differences between the two product categories. Fertilizers (HS 31) exhibit strong export potential, with demand from trade partners playing a significant role in shaping export volumes. In contrast, electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85) demonstrate weak global competitiveness and limited growth prospects. These products are primarily exported to less developed markets with high trade barriers, where demand exerts minimal influence. Nevertheless, post-2014 sanctions stimulated modest improvements in this sector’s export performance. The findings offer practical insights for exporters and regional authorities engaged in export development and diversification.

The Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Economic Growth Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging Markets

Tuna Köse — 2025-06-30

Since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, both emerging and developed economies have encountered increased economic uncertainty. Despite substantial research on macroeconomic uncertainties, there remains a significant gap in understanding asymmetric causal relationships between inflation uncertainty and economic growth in inflation-targeting emerging markets. This study addresses this gap by exploring both symmetric and asymmetric causality between inflation uncertainty and economic growth in selected countries: Brazil, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Türkiye. Asymmetric causality tests are crucial as they offer a more nuanced view of how inflation uncertainty and economic growth impact each other in distinct ways, which is vital for enhancing macroeconomic stability and policy effectiveness. The research employs the ARMA-GARCH model to estimate inflation uncertainty and applies both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests. The findings reveal a unidirectional causality from inflation uncertainty to economic growth in Brazil and Bulgaria, and from economic growth to inflation uncertainty in Russia and Türkiye. Furthermore, asymmetric shock analysis shows that negative shocks in inflation uncertainty lead to negative shocks in economic growth in Russia and Korea, while positive shocks in inflation uncertainty correspond with positive shocks in economic growth in India. These insights can help policymakers in emerging markets develop more effective monetary policies. Future research should include a broader range of countries and additional macroeconomic variables to validate these findings and explore inflation uncertainty dynamics further.

Effect of the Shadow Economy on Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Bantyergu Engida Bati — 2025-06-30

The shadow economy in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries has become a persistent challenge that undermines government tax revenues. This study investigates the shadow economy’s adverse effect on tax revenue in SSA, addressing a critical gap in the region’s fiscal research. The analysis covers 15 SSA countries over the period of 15 years, using the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond GMM estimation method. Model validity was confirmed through Arellano-Bond autocorrelation tests and a significant Wald chi-squared statistic, ensuring robust results. Descriptive analysis reveals that SSA countries exhibit relatively low tax revenue (15.7 % of GDP, on average) alongside a sizable shadow economy (36.2 % of GDP). The shadow economy was found to exert a significant negative effect on tax revenue (â = -0.249, p = 0.010). Tax revenues also display persistence, with prior tax revenue significantly influencing current levels. Among the control variables, unemployment (â = 0.315, p = 0.002) and trade openness (â = 0.057, p = 0.006) positively affect tax revenue. Conversely, foreign direct investment (â = – 0.022, p = 0.071) and oil revenue (â = -0.087, p = 0.002) have negative impacts, reflecting tax incentives and resource dependency. Control of corruption exerts a marginally positive influence (â = 2.950, p = 0.096). GDP per capita, inflation, the role of agriculture, the number of taxes paid by businesses, and regulatory quality show no significant effects. This study highlights the shadow economy’s detrimental impact on tax revenue in SSA and underscores the need for policies aimed at formalizing informal activities and strengthening tax compliance. The findings contribute to public finance research and provide practical guidance for designing sustainable fiscal policies. Avenues for future research could include expanding the analysis to a broader set of countries.

Spatial Economic Integration and Its Mechanisms in the Works of Russian Regionalists: A Descriptive Review

Alexander Ya. Trotskovsky — 2025-06-30

This article reviews research by Russian scholars on interregional economic ties as a key mechanism for the spatial integration of Russian regions. The aim is to synthesize current knowledge on the trends and drivers shaping Russia’s economic space and to outline the main contours of this research field. The focus of the review reflects the authors’ interest in the dynamics of cooperation and integration in the Siberian economy. A descriptive approach was adopted to provide broad coverage of sources while maintaining a degree of systematic analysis.

The review used a step-by-step algorithm for selecting publications:

1) by keywords using the Russian RINC system;

2) selection of relevant monographs and articles on the topic under consideration;

3) selection of publications open for viewing.

The three-step selection algorithm was expanded to include highly cited publications from leading regional research centres and key Russian journals. The selected works were classified by focus, revealing thematic clusters—ranging from types and forms of interregional integration to its relationship with regional development and methods for assessing its effectiveness. The review finds that a comprehensive understanding of spatial economic integration as a multi-functional, multi-structural phenomenon is still lacking. Key directions for future research are proposed to address this gap.

Challenges in Aligning Municipal Investment Passports with Regional Investment Policy in Russia

Nataliya G. Filatova — 2025-06-30

External economic pressures and the volatility of macroeconomic processes have given rise to several new trends in regional economies: regionalization of economic spaces, growing interregional disparities, and intensified interregional interactions. These changes highlight the need for focused research on setting priorities in regional investment policies, improving policy implementation tools, and developing mechanisms to coordinate and motivate stakeholders involved in investment activities at both regional and municipal levels. This study examines methodological frameworks for defining regional investment priorities and tools, and their alignment with municipal investment profiles. The central hypothesis suggests that priority investment goals are cascaded from the regional level down to municipalities through territory-specific investment passports. The methodology includes analysis and synthesis of theoretical concepts on regional development, development of systematic approaches for selecting key objectives and managing investment processes within territorial economic systems, and a detailed examination of municipal investment passports based on the case of Novosibirsk Oblast (Russia). Findings reveal a lack of vertical alignment between the strategic initiatives led by regional authorities and the practical measures executed by municipalities in investment management. This gap is evident across four key areas: promotion and support of export-oriented and import-substitution projects, strengthening and streamlining of cooperative networks, development of priority regional economic sectors, and integration of investment risk assessment into project execution. These results lead to recommendations for improving the design of territorial investment passports and emphasize the need for a coordinated system that better aligns municipal investment efforts with overarching regional investment policy goals.

Cluster-Econometric Analysis of Russian Regions: Implications for Differentiated Economic Policys

Leyla A. Gamidullaeva — 2025-06-30

In a rapidly changing economic landscape, a crucial challenge for state economic policy is the need for a differentiated approach to regional development. Despite its importance, this aspect has been insufficiently explored within the framework of macroeconomic regulation. This study investigates regional identity through the unique configurations of economic, innovative, technological, and transport potentials, and their influence on economic growth. At the first stage, a cluster analysis was performed to classify Russian regions into eight groups, based on 27 economic and structural indicators. These indicators encompass various dimensions such as economic capacity, innovation, technological readiness, and transport infrastructure. In the second stage, multiple regression analysis was used to evaluate the effect of these factors on per capita gross regional product. The econometric modelling revealed key drivers of regional growth and identified the factors most significantly influencing development. Analysis of each cluster highlighted the varying degrees of factor potential and future development prospects. The findings suggest that many regions are not fully exploiting their available resources, while some are facing significant constraints to growth, underscoring the need for technological transformation. The study proposes an interregional cooperation policy aimed at redistributing technological capabilities and fostering technology transfer. This approach can help policymakers design more effective economic policies that promote sustainable growth, improve technological development, and balance regional potential.

Vacancies and Labour Demand in Russia: Regional Patterns and Key Influencing Factors

Ilya A. Korshunov — 2025-06-30

Understanding labour market dynamics and trends in Russia is essential for effective policy-making in the sphere of human resource management. This article analyses the impact of staff turnover, investment activity, and regional economic development on the number of vacancies posted on the Rabota Rossii recruitment platform. Using descriptive statistics and regression analysis, the study identifies how these factors influence labour demand across different regions. The findings highlight distinct regional and sectoral patterns: economically weaker regions tend to have more labour market stability and slower job creation, while more developed regions demonstrate a continuous creation of new jobs with large workforce numbers, which also leads to higher staff turnover. The data also show that vacancies for new positions are fewer than those for replacing existing staff. Data from recruitment websites confirm that regions with higher job creation rates tend to have a higher gross regional product per capita, reflecting stronger production, better-quality output, greater economic activity, and more opportunities to attract new investors and entrepreneurs. The study provides a practical framework for analysing regional labour demand, which can be of interest to employers seeking to improve recruitment strategies and to local authorities aiming to enhance employment support programs and labour market development.

Migration to the Moscow Agglomeration as a Constraint on Regional Growth in the Central Federal Okrug of Russia

Pavel V. Druzhinin — 2025-06-30

Amid slowing economic growth and the rapid concentration of population and investment in the Moscow agglomeration, the development of surrounding regions in the Central Federal Okrug (CFO) has become increasingly relevant. This study hypothesizes that migration to the Moscow agglomeration hinders the development of both the neighbouring CFO regions and the district as a whole. Its aim is to assess whether reduced migration to Moscow could accelerate overall economic growth in the CFO. Using new Rosstat data, the study proposes a method for evaluating the total migration balance across CFO regions from 2010 to 2021, identifying both influencing and dependent indicators. Regions are grouped according to the trajectories of their key indicators from 2009 to 2021 to analyse the impact of population concentration in the Moscow agglomeration. By examining these groups and modelling production functions, the study estimates how shifts in resource distribution might affect the district’s total gross regional product (GRP). Key findings include the dependence of regional migration balance on the ratio of average wages to the subsistence minimum, links to total investment levels (2009–2021), and per capita GRP. Although the two groups of regions differ in dynamics, their development efficiency is similar; slower growth in some regions stems primarily from lower migration-driven investment. The concentration of resources in Moscow ultimately hampers development in other CFO regions, increases interregional disparities, and slows district-wide progress. To mitigate this, the study recommends improving living conditions in the regions and enhancing education and workforce training to meet investor demand. The findings may be of interest to regional strategy developers.

The Asymmetric Impact of Health Expenditure, Bottom Decile Income, and Trade Openness on BRICS Health Indicators

Dhyani Mehta — 2025-06-30

Amid growing concerns about widening health inequities and the complex interaction of socioeconomic determinants, the problem of improving health outcomes in emerging economies—particularly within BRICS nations—has become ever more significant. This research delves into the impact of health expenditure, trade openness, and income distribution on health indicators such as infant mortality rate (IMR), life expectancy (LE), and crude death rate (CDR) in BRICS, including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The study uses annual time series panel data from 2000 to 2023 and applies the cross-sectional asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (CS-NARDL) model to examine these relationships. The findings reveal that an increase in health spending leads to reductions in mortality and death rates, while reduced spending has a more pronounced (negative) effect on health indicators. Moreover, the study highlights the organic improvement in health indicators observed in open economies, as they benefit from the exchange of advanced health technology and services. The results indicate that an increase in income among the poorest households in the lowest quartile of income distribution enhances their access to health services, thereby leading to improved health indicators. This study contributes to the existing literature on the impact of health expenditure and income distribution on health indicators. Governments should establish mechanisms to evaluate the effectiveness of healthcare spending on health outcomes, enabling them to improve their healthcare policies and programs.

Government Information Support for Promoting Socially Responsible Business to Address Socio-Economic and Demographic Challenges in Russian Regions

Aleksandr V. Neshataev — 2025-06-30

In Russia, the state, businesses, and society are increasingly focused on addressing demographic challenges in the labour market, prioritizing long-term human capital development over short-term economic gains. Central to these efforts is corporate citizenship in the demographic field, which underscores the importance of government support for businesses engaged in solving regional issues. This study examines how official government publications from the Northwestern, Ural, and Siberian Federal Okrugs provide information support to commercial organizations. The findings reveal that official sources rarely publish content using ECG indicators. Coverage of external activities focused on attracting potential employees is twenty times more frequent than coverage of internal company events. Increased media attention reflects the intensified efforts of regional authorities to engage businesses in addressing social challenges, along with improved collaboration between government and industry. Executive authorities actively promote enterprises that address demographic issues, with Altai Krai, Kemerovo Oblast, and Novosibirsk Oblast being the top-performing regions in the Siberian Federal Okrug in terms of ECG indicators. Overall, information support plays a crucial role in fostering socially responsible business practices and holds significant potential to enhance human capital across Russia’s regions.

Estimating the Impact of International Sanctions on Migration Flows Using Dynamic Panel Regression Method

Kristina V. Nesterova — 2025-06-30

The study estimates the impact of different types of international sanctions on migration flows. We use data on 1325 cases of international sanctions imposed against 168 countries for the period of 1950 to 2021. Next, the U.S. sanctions are taken as a representative sample out of all cases, reflecting 87 % of cases of sanctions imposed by the OECD over the past 30 years. Using dynamic panel regression, we estimate the effect of different types of sanctions (trade sanctions, financial sanctions, travel sanctions, and other sanctions) on migration flows in sanctioned states. To our knowledge, this is the first study on sanctions impact of migration that differentiates sanctions by type. According to the results, only financial sanctions lead to a significant reduction in net migration for sanctioned states. The effect of the U.S. financial sanctions on net migration is estimated at – 5.22 people per thousand people of total population. The effect is explained by the negative impact of sanctions on the standard of living and the degree of integration of the national financial system into the global financial markets. In the case of restrictions on trade flows and travel, the absence of a negative effect from US sanctions indicates the presence of closer trade and migration ties with third countries compared to the US. The results of the study reveal the importance of factors such as trade and financial sanctions in construction of models involving migration flows. The estimates indicate potential for influx of labor migrants to Russia and the relevance of developing measures to attract them.

Influence of Family Residence and Birth Order on Regional Fertility Rates (the Case of Udmurtia, Russia)

Daiana D. Vavilova — 2025-06-30

This study examines birth rate dynamics in the Udmurt Republic from 2000 to 2023, focusing on how family residence (urban vs. rural areas) and birth order affect fertility. Understanding these factors is essential for tailoring effective regional demographic policies. Using regression analysis and prior correlation studies, the research identifies linear relationships between birth rates and variables such as settlement type, birth order, the ratio of average per capita income to the subsistence minimum, and maternity capital availability. A nonlinear relationship was found between fertility and the sex ratio of the fertile-age population. The study confirms that birth rate dynamics vary significantly depending on the place of residence and birth order. Mathematical models were developed to describe these dependencies and used to forecast fertility trends through 2030. Projections indicate a continued decline in first births, stabilization of second births, and growth in third and subsequent births, with the overall birth rate stabilizing around 7.2 per 1,000 people. By 2030, total births in the region are expected to decrease by 20.6 % from 2023 levels, largely due to an imbalance in the ratio of fertile-age women to men. These findings may provide a basis for developing targeted fertility enhancement programs tailored to specific territorial contexts.

Assessing Labour Resource Efficiency: A Territorial Perspective

Anastasia Y. Kalnaya — 2025-06-30

Russia currently faces a labour market shortage alongside historically low unemployment rates. Enhancing the efficiency of available labour resources is, therefore, a critical public administration priority. However, spatial imbalances at the municipal level exacerbate regional development disparities and socio-economic asymmetries. This article proposes a methodological toolkit to assess labour resource efficiency across municipalities. Key methods include statistical analysis, simple grouping, ranking, and expert evaluation, with experts selected via self-assessment. Using data from Stavropol Oblast, the study evaluates indicators such as output per employee, profit and loss balance per employee, fixed asset investment per employee, and wage efficiency. Integration of these indicators enables classification of municipalities into three groups: growing: high labour productivity, wage efficiency, profitability, diversified economy, and development in agriculture, industry, and trade; stable: labour resource efficiency approximately 15 % below the regional average; and degrading: low productivity, profitability, wages, and weak investment attractiveness. These results can be used to inform spatial development strategies, including workforce training, population resettlement, wage equalization, and targeted programs to boost labour productivity, which may ultimately help reduce socio-economic disparities among municipalities.

Incorporating Demographic Indicators into Human Development Assessment under Kazakhstan’s Demographic Transition Model

Yuriy K. Shokamanov — 2025-06-30

While human development is commonly measured through indicators like the health index in the Human Development Index (HDI), for Kazakhstan — with its pronounced regional demographic disparities — a broader set of demographic indicators is required. This study introduces a methodology to incorporate demographic indicators into human development assessments within the framework of Kazakhstan’s demographic transition model. The article outlines criteria for selecting relevant demographic indicators aligned with human development concepts, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and regional demographic characteristics while avoiding redundancy. We propose a methodology that uses a Demographic Development Index (DDI) to calculate a correction factor, which adjusts the health component of the HDI based on key indicators of the demographic transition. The DDI construction follows established methods for composite indices as used in global Human Development Reports and is divided into three sub-indices reflecting different depths of demographic analysis: general coefficients, specialized indicators, and population structure metrics. Applying this methodology to 2023 data demonstrates its effectiveness in capturing regional demographic development and transition dynamics. The observed regional variation in the adjusted index reached a factor of 2.1 between minimum and maximum values. These results can inform analyses of demographic and human development processes in Kazakhstan’s regions and offer a useful tool for researchers evaluating human development at national and international levels.

Project-Based Learning as a Driver of Regional University Leadership in Engineering Education

Anastasia D. Melnik — 2025-06-30

In the past two to three years, Russia’s higher education agenda has prioritized advancing engineering education through closer university–industry integration to promote technological leadership. A key challenge for many universities, especially those with a focus on engineering, remains the reliance on localized teaching practices that enable only sporadic collaboration with regional enterprises. This gap may be addressed through project-based learning (PBL), which supports sustained cooperation among students, faculty, and industrial partners. This study examines PBL as a potential driver of leadership among regional universities in engineering education. The empirical base includes data from the 2021–2023 national monitoring of Russian university performance (n = 769), development programs from federal initiatives such as Priority 2030 (n = 113) and Advanced Engineering Schools (n = 50), along with additional supporting sources. Methods employed include classification, comparative and cluster analysis, and content analysis. The analysis identified five clusters of regional universities with prospects for leadership in engineering education. The findings suggest that four of these clusters, which include 33 universities across 14 Russian regions, should be prioritized for state funding. In three of the key clusters, up to 75 % of universities have adopted project-based learning models involving continuous collaboration among key actors. These institutions have shown greater activity in developing student design bureaus and start-up initiatives. The results help address two key challenges in regional economies: meeting the demand for skilled labour and modernizing production, by engaging young professionals in innovation-driven projects that accelerate technological development.

Coping Strategies of the Russian Population in Response to Social Risks

Mariya N. Makarova — 2025-06-30

The diversity and intensity of social risks faced by contemporary Russian society contribute to elevated stress levels and a widespread need for adaptation to rapidly changing conditions. Against this backdrop, this study explores coping strategies as behavioural patterns that emerge in response to social risks. While individual and group coping behaviours have been widely examined, population-level coping strategies remain underexplored—particularly in terms of generalization at the macro level (national or regional) and in accounting for both objective factors and subjective perceptions of risk. The study is grounded in the hypothesis that coping strategies are shaped not only by the population’s socio-economic characteristics but also by their subjective perception of life circumstances. In turn, these strategies influence how people perceive, structure, and respond to social risks. The study aims to examine the characteristics of different coping strategies in relation to subjective assessments of social risks that create a stressful environment. Coping strategies were identified through a pilot sociological survey conducted among the working-age population of Sverdlovsk Oblast between April and November 2024. The sample was representative by gender and age and constructed with a 95 % confidence interval. The survey revealed three main coping strategies used in response to social risks: “solve the problem,” “ask for help,” and “wait it out.” The study identifies the socio-demographic characteristics associated with each strategy, highlights the most pressing social risks, and illustrates behavioural responses using the example of health deterioration risk. The novelty of this research lies in addressing both objective and subjective factors that shape coping behaviour. The findings underscore the importance of tailoring social policy measures to specific population groups based on their dominant coping strategy. Future research may expand on these findings by examining additional socio-demographic determinants, such as education level or place of residence, and by refining the classification of each coping strategy.

Internal Migration in Kaliningrad Oblast: New and Old Tendencies

Anna V. Lialina — 2025-06-30

Internal migration in Kaliningrad Oblast has become a key factor for the region’s balanced development amid declining net migration from outside its borders. In recent years, internal migration patterns have shifted significantly due to socio-economic disparities among districts. Both the volume and geographic structure of migration flows between districts and settlements have undergone transformation. This study aims to identify and explain the changes in internal migration dynamics in 2020–2023 compared to the earlier period of 2011–2019. The analysis employs general scientific and statistical methods, typology, as well as sociological and cartographic approaches. The analysis draws on official migration statistics from Kaliningradstat (the regional statistical agency) covering municipal, rural, and urban areas, as well as data from a population survey on migration intentions conducted in March–April 2024. The results indicate a trend toward population concentration in the regional center and suburbanization in the western part of the region. These patterns are driven by a combination of motivations to improve quality of life and increased economic and investment activity around the regional capital. While rural-to-urban migration and broader urbanization trends persist, they are now more pronounced in the eastern districts, whereas the influx into the Kaliningrad agglomeration has notably slowed. This shift is primarily attributed to the effects of the “poverty trap.” Additionally, transit migration has emerged across the outer suburban belt and the rapidly developing Guryevsky District, facilitated by improved transport accessibility and smaller cost-of-living differentials compared to peripheral areas. Nonetheless, it is premature to conclude that these observed transformations represent a completed shift toward a new internal migration regime in the region.

Organizational and Economic Aspects of Developing Regional Clusters in the Russian Hydrogen Market

Artem A. Dvinianinov — 2025-06-30

This article analyses the transformation of the Russian energy market amid the rise of hydrogen technologies, emphasizing key trends in the diversification of Russia’s fuel and energy sector. It proposes a conceptual framework for the hydrogen market’s development, focusing on regional differences. Using a three-stage systems approach, the study first systematizes global hydrogen market indicators and classifies participants. Next, it assesses hydrogen production methods, concluding that advancing “yellow” and “blue” hydrogen is economically viable due to their low costs ($1.45–$4.70/kg) and favourable technical and environmental traits. This stage also defines the organizational and economic features of Russia’s domestic hydrogen market formation. The third stage comprises a logical and structural analysis of factors influencing market development, including opportunities for hydrogen export to Asian countries. It is shown that although global hydrogen consumption is expected to rise to 528 million tons by 2050, this volume remains small compared to natural gas consumption (2.583 trillion tons), indicating that a full transition from hydrocarbons to hydrogen energy is still premature. The article emphasizes the need to improve methods for assessing the economic efficiency of hydrogen projects and proposes organizational recommendations for creating an eastern hydrogen cluster through international consortia.

The Role of Housing Development in Population Shifts During Migration (the Case of Moscow and Moscow Oblast, Russia)

Roman A. Babkin — 2025-06-30

This study uncovers how the rise of large new residential complexes is reshaping the size and makeup of urban populations—an important yet often overlooked connection. Employing statistical and cartographic methods, we analysed comprehensive data on the localization of cellular subscribers from all mobile operators for October 2021 and 2023, alongside housing construction data from 2021–2022. Our methodological approach quantitatively assesses the impact of new residential development and subsequent settlement on structural, demographic, and ethnocultural transformations in urban spaces, focusing on shifts among native residents of Moscow Oblast, internal migrants, and foreign migrants. The findings reveal that new housing construction is the primary driver of population growth in New Moscow and Moscow Oblast. In contrast, in Old Moscow, new housing is only one of several factors influencing population change, meaning that housing commissioning does not always correspond with an increase in residents. Migration patterns were also examined: internal migrants predominantly settle in more affordable new housing in New Moscow, where they can comprise up to one-third of the population, while in Old Moscow, they tend to occupy older housing stock. New residential complexes also show a high concentration of foreign migrants, even during construction, due to the attraction of migrant labour. Furthermore, different factors influencing migrant concentrations in new housing vary across areas of the metropolitan region. These results offer valuable insights for territorial and sectoral planning of Moscow and Moscow Oblast. Additionally, the study provides a methodological foundation for future research that will benefit from expanding spatial and temporal data coverage from mobile operators in Russia and the availability of longer time series.

Assessment of the Impact of the International North-South Transport Corridor on Transit Travel Time in Regional and Global Cargo Transportation

Alexander Yu. Krylatov — 2025-06-30

Global and regional challenges are reshaping trade relations, supply chains, and cargo transportation routes. In this context, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is gaining increased political and economic importance. This study evaluates congestion along sections of the corridor by analysing demand and infrastructure capacity in the regional transit logistics system. Using a game-theoretic model, the competitive behaviour of cargo flows under limited network capacity was simulated. Results indicate that with projected transportation demand between Saint Petersburg and Mumbai reaching 41 million tons per year by 2030, transit times between Europe and Asia via the INSTC could be reduced by 20–40 % compared to existing routes. The corridor remains attractive for transit volumes up to 80 million tons annually, and with targeted investments to expand capacity on 11 key network sections, it could handle up to 100 million tons per year. In the long term, the INSTC is expected to support 80 to 100 million tons annually, maintaining competitiveness in the global freight network and fostering regional economic development. Further investments in border crossings and transshipment hubs could expand capacity beyond 100 million tons, strengthening the corridor as a viable alternative for routes between Asia, Europe, India, and North America. These findings can inform development plans for the INSTC, transport policies of participating countries, and contribute to improving local living standards.

The Impact of Industrial Output and Investment on Electricity Consumption in Sverdlovsk Oblast (Russia): Wavelet Analysis of Time Series Accounting for Seasonal Factors

Leonid A. Serkov — 2025-06-30

This article examines the influence of industrial production and investment on electricity consumption in Sverdlovsk Oblast using multivariate wavelet analysis (MWA) that accounts for seasonal factors. The novelty of the study lies in the application of MWA tools, such as multiple and partial coherence, partial phase difference, and partial wavelet gain coefficient, to identify time-varying causal relationships. The wavelet-based results confirm and extend findings gained through the application of traditional econometric approaches by revealing how these relationships differ across time horizons and frequencies. The multiple coherence analysis shows seasonal cointegration at a frequency corresponding to a four-quarter cycle and the absence of long-term (non-seasonal) cointegration. Partial coherence diagrams suggest that, after controlling for one variable, there is no cointegration between electricity consumption and either industrial output or investment across all frequencies. Partial phase difference analysis reveals the lead-lag structure and phase alignment among the variables, depending on the frequency and time period. Notably, data from 2022–2023, coinciding with the imposition of international sanctions on Russia, offer particularly valuable insights. The study shows that both business cycle theories and related government policies should place greater emphasis on seasonal dynamics. Companies can use the results of wavelet analysis to determine the optimal timing for launching new production capacities.