Economy of Regions

Coastal Natural and Economic Systems of the Pechora-Kara Region in the Context of Climate Change Risks

2023-10-23T10:06:49+05:00

The Pechoro-Kara region occupies a special place in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation as the centre of hydrocarbon exploration, which is the main Russian export. At the same time, this is the area with the highest climate risks on the Arctic coast of Russia. The study aims to estimate the value of buildings and structures planned for construction as part of large investment projects in the coastal areas of the Pechora and Kara Seas by the mid-21st century. Regulatory documents, data from official websites and investment portals of various companies and public authorities were examined to create a database of 36 investment projects in the mining and manufacturing industries, transport scheduled to be commissioned in 2017–2050. The authors’ method analyses the time series of indicators of investment in fixed capital and new fixed assets, as well as the structure of fixed assets in the examined industries. Calculations reveal that after the construction phase of each of the projects under consideration, new fixed assets amounting to 8.2 trillion roubles are expected. These include buildings and structures of the mining industry (approximately 6.2 trillion roubles), transport (0.8 trillion roubles), manufacturing industry (0.1 trillion roubles). As an example, the obtained results were compared with the forecast of thermal abrasion and ice-gouging hazards on the coasts of the Pechora and Kara seas. The estimated value of fixed assets that will be located in areas of maximum risk is about 4 trillion roubles (in 2023 prices). This finding confirms the urgent need for early implementation of adaptation protective measures during the construction and operation of infrastructure in order to minimise potential damage.

The Arctic Oil and Gas Industry and Indigenous Ethnic Groups: Potential Assessment and Relation Problems

2023-11-02T11:30:47+05:00

The oil and gas industry is the basis of Russia’s socio-economic development and remains the main source of foreign exchange earnings. In the 21st century, hydrocarbon exploration moved to Arctic regions. The study aims to assess the impact of the Arctic oil and gas industry on indigenous peoples of the North and identify ways to improve contractual relations between them. To this end, statistical, cluster, aggregation, analogy approaches, etc. were used. Analysis of the differences of oil and gas districts in economic activity, commodity specialisation, transport logistics revealed 6 clusters: Nadym-Urengoy, Purovsky, Zapolyarny, Nenets, Taimyr-Turukhansky (Vankorsk) and Usinsky. The oil and gas fields are linked to places of traditional residence and economic activity of small indigenous peoples that are rich in renewable natural resources. The development of these areas expanded the country’s oil and gas resource base. However, it also caused social and environmental problems associated with a decrease in renewable natural resource potential of places of traditional residence and economic activities as a result of pollution and reduction of fishing and hunting grounds. Simultaneously, the shift method traditionally used to overcome the shortage of qualified personnel in the Northern and Arctic regions allows oil and gas companies to avoid the cost of creating social infrastructure. Despite advances in technology and state policy measures implemented to solve social, ethnic and environmental problems of small indigenous peoples, economic benefits are the most important reason for the development of the Northern and Arctic regions. Thus, contractual relations between extractive corporations and indigenous ethnic groups do not protect peoples’ livelihoods. A comprehensive assessment of renewable natural resource potential is required to reduce the damage to indigenous peoples and the environment during hydrocarbon exploration.

Identification of the Causes of Population Outflow from the Successful Far Eastern Arctic Region (1990–2020)

2024-01-22T11:02:25+05:00

The problem of the Far Eastern macroregion after the transition to a market economy is the population outflow. Since 1990, the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, the easternmost Arctic region of Russia, has lost the largest share of the population (70 %). The external success of the okrug’s socio-economic development, as evidenced by the primary industry growth and its leading places among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in a number of key per capita indicators, does not contribute to the influx of labour resources, since this region is one of the smallest in Russia. The 30-year dynamics of socio-economic processes in Chukotka were examined to clarify the reasons for this paradox. To this end, main quantitative and qualitative indicators of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug in the economic and social sphere were compared in the context of a planned economy (1990), when the region was attractive for living, and market one (2020), characterised by a massive population outflow. To assess living standards, the authors’ methodology was used to compare the purchasing power of income in different economic conditions. Living standards significantly decreased: in a planned economy, they exceeded the national average by 3 times, while in market conditions, there is only a slight excess (22 %). The population outflow from the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug resulted from a combination of two factors: a change in the economic paradigm and specificity of the Arctic region. Accordingly, the population of the northern and Arctic regions can be maintained only by providing a better living standard relative to other constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The findings can be used to improve the socio-economic policy of the Russian North and Arctic.

The North-Arctic Territories of the Far East: Influence of Infrastructure Factors on the Transformation of the Region’s Spatial Development

2023-10-17T09:19:29+05:00

The complex influence of infrastructure factors on the transformation of spatial development of various regions, including the North-Arctic, is very important but understudied. Theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of infrastructure do not correspond to its backbone nature and role in economic development. The paper aims to identify characteristics and causes of the ongoing spatial and economic transformations and determine their influence on socio-economic development and formation of integrated economic structures of Northern and Arctic territories. The research considers both the classic Arctic regions and high-latitude Far North regions, which are closely integrated in natural, ecological and socio-economic terms. To this end, theories of spatial economics, infrastructure and system-evolutionary analysis, as well as the authors’ relevant theoretical and methodological approaches are utilised. Additionally, the paper uses a hypothetical approach and indirect assessment methods based on the analysis of strategic studies and documents on the long-term development of the studied territories. As a result, the peculiarities of the ongoing transformations in this zone were revealed, associated with the advanced development of exogenous elements of critical infrastructure and formation of a special Northeastern mesoregion. This new integrated formation is an intermediate, median structure between the primary North-Arctic territories (microregions) and the Far East macroregion. This formation can significantly strengthen the economic and geostrategic stability of these regions in a fairly short time. It is necessary to further study the described problem based on interdisciplinary research within the framework of a target scientific and applied programme with the participation of natural and social science experts.

Forecasting Passenger Traffic of Socially Significant Air Routes Within the Arctic Region

2024-01-16T09:43:28+05:00

The Russian Arctic is characterised by the poor development of year-round land routes. In these conditions, air transport is the basis of passenger traffic. However, air mobility of the population in the Arctic regions is significantly lower than that of Russia in general. The article substantiates the need to increase transport accessibility of the Arctic by developing an internal network of socially significant air routes. To create a route network plan, it is necessary to forecast passenger traffic on existing and potential air routes within the Arctic region. To this end, a multiple regression model was used to develop a two-level forecasting approach. At the first level, the proposed method was applied to calculate local passenger traffic between remote settlements and the centre of the Arctic region. At the second level, the findings were examined to forecast passenger traffic between the centres of the Arctic regions and the main airport with direct flights to other regions. To predict passenger flows on potential routes, a probabilistic model of the number of flights by one resident per year was constructed based on an analysis of existing socio-economic relations, purpose of the flight and the existing infrastructure at the start and end points of the route. According to the results of forecasting passenger traffic on existing routes, it is necessary to increase the frequency and regularity of local flights by optimising the aircraft fleet in order to increase the population’s air mobility. At the same time, the results of passenger traffic forecasting on potential routes confirmed the need for subsidised direct flights between the centres of neighbouring Arctic regions with certain social infrastructure facilities.

The Dry Port on the Northern Sea Route in the Formation of the Ural-Arctic Sector of Russia

2024-02-09T11:40:17+05:00

Russia strives to develop its Arctic territories and projects for their integrated use, as well as the Northern Sea Route. These tasks can be solved by prioritising the connectivity of Russian regions. The article presents a strategic analysis and conceptual justification of the project “Dry port of Ekaterinburg”, which was created in 2022. The study proved that the project has been gaining importance during implementation as an element of the emerging Ural-Arctic sector of Russia, acting as an aqua-territorial system and a specific object of spatial development. The concept of a dry port on the Northern Sea Route (a system of complementary ports) was proposed. The uniqueness of the dry port on the Northern Sea Route (level I subsystem) in the middle megaregion due to its scale was assumed. Examination of the Greater Urals megaregion confirmed that Ekaterinburg should be at the top of the hierarchy of the dry port system considering Arctic factors and formation patterns of the supporting framework of intersecting transport corridors. Methods of spatial and economic analysis, synthesis of distributed systems, system modelling were utilised. The authors proposed a multi-criteria ranking of planned railway lines between Ural regions and ports on the Northern Sea Route under fundamentally incomplete and unreliable source data. The following criteria were used in the ranking: diversification, cargo formation, resource and technological capacity building, transport accessibility, and project investment financing. The ranking results revealed that a new railway line connecting the Northern Urals with the multifunctional Indiga port under construction on the Northern Sea Route is seen as preferable. The study offered a reasonable set of proposals for implementing the Ural-Arctic dry port in the Middle Urals.

Problems and Approaches to Identifying Agglomeration Boundaries in the Russian North and Arctic

2023-10-02T12:25:01+05:00

Urban agglomerations are currently considered by both scientists and practitioners of public administration. However, the issue of identifying the actual boundaries and creating tools for the development of so-called “second” – and “third-tier” agglomerations, with cores in large and medium-sized cities, remains understudied. Nevertheless, such agglomerations can become development drivers for territories outside the settlement area, primarily in the North and the Arctic. The article aims to determine the composition and boundaries of northern and Arctic agglomerations of Russia considering their specificity. The study presents the authors’ methodological approach to the delimitation of agglomerations combining traditional (isochrones of transport accessibility, gravitational methods) and modern tools (GIS technologies, big data analytics of social networks). As a result, the composition and boundaries of three northern/Arctic agglomerations with cores in Arkhangelsk, Surgut, Norilsk were identified, their specific characteristics were highlighted: the actual borders often do not meet strict traditional criteria of delimitation, particularly, the 1.5-hour isochrone of transport accessibility of the core city due to the weakened effect of geographical proximity; according to the development criterion of the settlement system, two of them (Surgut, Arkhangelsk) can be attributed to agglomerations; despite the underdeveloped settlement framework (the development coefficient is less than 2.7) and a growing share of the core city population in the total population, satellite areas increasingly become economic centres of gravity of agglomerations. The study substantiated the expediency of applying a flexible approach to the delimitation of borders and selecting tools for the development of urban agglomerations, taking into account formation factors and their economic and geographical location, specifically in the North and non-North projections. Further research will involve an in-depth assessment of localisation and urbanisation effects of the studied agglomerations.

Beyond Normality: Features of the Structure of Economic Activity in Arctic Cities and Settlements

2024-02-01T10:31:35+05:00

High transportation costs and the narrowness of the local market limit the development of Arctic cities, especially remote ones. However, specific demand for unique goods and services (including the so-called development services) and production of goods and services that are impractical/impossible to deliver from more southern areas (especially in the early stages of development) due to transport isolation contribute to the economic diversification of Arctic cities. The article aims to identify special mechanisms for the formation of economic activity in remote settlements. The study solves the following tasks: 1) theoretical substantiation of economic development factors in Arctic cities; 2) selection of indicators to assess the diversity of economic activities in remote settlements of the Russian Arctic; 3) analysis of the obtained results. The variety of economic activities of small settlements depends on the distance to the nearest larger settlement. Some remote towns and villages of Yakutia, Chukotka, etc., with a population of about 5,000 inhabitants (or even less) are characterised by a moderately increased diversity of economic activities in terms of both the total number of enterprises and organisations per 1,000 inhabitants and the number of types of economic activity (OKVED codes) per 1,000 inhabitants. According to the study, small settlements in remote conditions perform urban functions typical of larger cities in normal conditions, acting as economic and socio-cultural centres of the surrounding areas, in fact, as the base settlements of the Arctic. The expansion of the functions of small remote settlements plays an important role in the development of the urban network of the Arctic and the North. The findings can be used to create public policy measures in relation to the base settlements of the Russian Arctic.

Economic Differentiation of Municipalities of the Russian Arctic and their Receptivity to Federal Preferential Treatment

2023-11-14T09:37:12+05:00

The modern Arctic policy of Russia focuses on the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) as a single macroregion. However, since the Russian Arctic is internally heterogeneous, a common Arctic policy can either increase or decrease the differentiation of municipalities. Therefore, to improve federal spatial policy, it is necessary to assess the differentiation of Arctic municipalities and their receptivity to federal support measures for investors. To this end, the study proposes a new indicator, namely, the share of social and other benefits to the population in the sum of social benefits and taxable income of individuals and individual entrepreneurs. Unlike traditional wage indicators, the proposed indicator adequately reflects the income of the population and is not distorted by territorial price differences. This indicator for the AZRF varies from 5 % in municipalities with accelerated gas production to more than 50 % in peripheral areas. A reduced share of social benefits is typical for agglomerations of regional capitals, industrially developed municipalities or important seaports. The receptivity of municipalities to federal preferential treatment is analysed based on the author’s processing of resident registers (distribution of residents by Arctic municipalities). According to the results, investors are primarily attracted to the largest urban agglomerations of the European Russian Arctic (about half of residents of the Russian Arctic are in Arkhangelsk and Murmansk agglomerations), while the impact of preferential treatment on peripheral municipalities is minimal or non-existent (there were no residents of the Russian Arctic in approximately 20 percent of municipalities in three years). Such a situation will increase the imbalance in economic development of Arctic municipalities, therefore, state policy should provide various measures to support different municipalities, which should be substantiated in further research.

Relationship between the Dynamics of the Value Added of Basic and Service Industries in Arctic Municipalities

2024-02-09T11:32:23+05:00

Economic development of the Arctic is largely determined by the value added of basic economic activities, providing income for other economic entities, including the population, budget, service, etc. Therefore, the study aims to identify the relationships between the economic activity of leading companies and other sectors of the municipal economy. To this end, socio-economic development models
of municipalities in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YaNAO) were constructed. Basic (mining and construction) and service industries of Yamal (public administration and other service industries) were analysed using the author’s tw-stage approach. In the first stage, the value added of economic activities (both basic and service) of Yamal municipalities was determined. In the second stage, the correlation analysis was used to measure pairwise dependencies of changes in the value added of basic and service industries, while economic and mathematical modelling was applied to calculate the impact coefficients between them. Calculations for four pairs of sub-sectors for municipalities in general showed varying relationships (correlation ranged from 0.456 to 0.819). However, a hypothesis about the significant dependence of changes in the value added of basic and service industries was confirmed for oil and gas municipalities of YaNAO; the Purovsky district can be considered a standard of close correlation relationships. Analysis of the overall coefficients of the impact of basic industries on service industries revealed that the growth of value added in basic industries leads to a 11–17 % increase in the activity of service industries. At the same time, the model specification (based on the grouping of municipalities) of the relationship between basic industries and service activities showed that the impact varies from positive to negative
for different groups of territories.

Directions of Digital Transformation of the Social Service Space in a Northern Region

2023-12-21T13:32:25+05:00

Considering inadequate social infrastructure, poor transport connectivity, migration outflow and deformation of the settlement system in northern regions, social services become less available. After searching for ways to change the situation, we hypothesised that digital transformation of healthcare and education plays an important role in improving the production and transfer of social services to consumers and adjusting the social service space of the Komi Republic. The region’s social development space is a stratified object consisting of different layers, such as settlement, social service (healthcare, general education) and infrastructure (transport and ICT). The weak consistency of spatial structures at different layers is considered in the context of the communication connectivity concept. The study aims to understand the potential of digital transformation of healthcare and education to increase the availability of social services. To this end, industry digitalisation indices were identified, the methodology of their digital maturity was tested. The cartographic method was used to present the spatial structure of the ICT layer showing the digital inequality of the population. A problem analysis of the location of healthcare, education and communication facilities in 687 settlements and synthesis of quantitative estimates of the social service and ICT layers revealed their inconsistency. A comprehensive assessment of services identified 234 critical settlements without primary and secondary schools and partially without accessible healthcare facilities. Only half of them have the ICT infrastructure required for digital transformation. The similarity transformation method of structures in a multi-layered space determined the points and formats of communication for compensating digitalisation. It will provide remote communication of people with medical organisations, educational services and create the technological basis for implementing strategic digital transformation projects, which will be examined in further studies.

Новая российская Арктика

2024-06-30T00:28:49+05:00

Дорогие читатели! Представляем Вашему вниманию уникальный проект тематического междисциплинарного номера журнала, посвященного современным проблемам развития российской Арктики. Он объединил команду нескольких десятков профессионалов — ученых разных поколений, из различных областей гуманитарного знания (экономистов, географов, демографов, социологов), из академических институтов и университетов Москвы, Сыктывкара, Петрозаводска, Вологды, Екатеринбурга, Хабаровска и Магадана, которые многие годы увлечены темой изучения экономического и социального развития Арктики России.

On the Development of Arctic Research through Scientometrics

2023-11-14T10:00:00+05:00

There are still few Russian studies on quantitative measurements of Arctic science that could help create a holistic picture of developing research, compare the contributions of individual countries, and assess Russia’s scientific potential. The performed scientometric analysis partly fills this gap, relying on multiple sources: bibliographic databases Web of Science Core Collection and DIMENSIONS; grant databases of Russia, the USA and Germany. The analysis revealed: 1) the fast growth of Arctic publications in the period 1980–2020 with an average annual rate of 5 % after 2008, which is similar to some high-tech fields; 2) increasing globalisation of research performed by scientists from more than 100 countries; 3) changes in Arctic research interests, including long-term trends (socialisation of research, decreasing share of works on geology and physical geography) and fast new trends (increasing share of publications on economics and technologies of industry 4.0). According to calculations, Russia is third among countries in terms of the number of Arctic publications in the Web of Science Core Collection database, significantly contributing to highly cited papers; however, this contribution may be negatively affected by a decline in the share of Russian publications with international co-authorship. Thanks to its traditionally strong position, the Russian Academy of Sciences remains the leading centre of global Arctic research; within the country, it promotes Arctic science through its regional branches and institutes, as well as supports the intensification of university studies. The abstracts of selected 2023 Arctic grants reflect the topics of some future publications; for example, their analysis showed different attitudes towards the role of the climate factor in Arctic research: excessive focus of projects supported by foreign funds and a more balanced approach in Russian projects.

Russian Arctic-2035: Multi-Scale Forecast

2024-04-05T14:35:39+05:00

The subject of the study is the forecast of the development of the Arctic territories of Russia at the zonal, regional and municipal levels based on the concept of technical and economic (structural) dynamics of N. Kondratiev – S. Glazyev – С. Peres. The object of study is the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the study is to describe the technical and economic dynamics of the Arctic territories until 2035. This goal determined the solution of three tasks: 1) identifying the features of new resource development of the Russian Arctic based on the mineral resources and fuel and energy potential of the Arctic territories of Russia; 2) justification of the current situation in the regions of the Russian Arctic, such as the dynamics of technological structures and calculated positions on the volume of GRP in 2035; 3) compiling a list of Arctic municipalities (49) with limited delivery times for cargo and their typology based on the speed of technical and economic dynamics. Results of the study: I. The resource potential of the Russian Arctic from the point of view of technological structures can be strengthened through the commissioning of deposits of graphite, antimony, and bauxite, the global demand for which is characterized by favorable conditions in the forecast period; II. The regions of the Russian Arctic are differentiated based on the analysis of greenfield projects carried out during the forecast period into three groups of technological renewal: a) maximum; b) partial; c) minimal. The forecast of the GRP of the Arctic territories based on resource production indicators in 2035 determined their rank: 1) Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug; 2) Murmansk region; 3-4) Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Arctic of the Krasnoyarsk Territory; 5) Arctic of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia); 6) Arctic of the Komi Republic; 7) Chukotka Autonomous Okrug; 8) Arctic of the Arkhangelsk region; 9) Arctic of the Republic of Karelia. III. Arctic municipalities with limited delivery times are separated into four groups from the point of view of the prospects for the formation of a new technological structure based on new projects: 1) maximum potential (12); 2) average potential (9); 3) without new mining projects, but with prospects for completing the development of previously started ones and technological modernization of old projects (12); 4) without prospects for the deployment of new projects for the development of non-renewable resources, but with prospects for the development of biological resources (16). Possible application of the results can be documents of strategic planning of the Russian Arctic at the zonal, regional and municipal levels.

Multidimensional Demography: A New Approach to Assessing the Human Resources of the Russian North

2023-08-10T14:08:21+05:00

Over the past three decades, the population of the Russian North has decreased by almost a quarter. Simultaneously, an increasing share of pensioners may negatively affect the availability and quality of labour resources in northern regions. The article examines the dynamics and structure of human resources in 13 regions of the Russian North in the 21st century using multidimensional demography. This approach, along with the main demographic indicators (sex, age) varying in time and space, involves considering such additional characteristics as education and labour force participation. This view of demographic processes can reveal whether an increase in education or employment (qualitative characteristics) can help reduce negative trends in the quantitative characteristics of human resources. The average duration of education of the total and employed population was compared. Indicators of the total duration of education and education costs were used to assess the value of the accumulated educational potential. According to the calculations, in 2002–2010, the total duration of education of the employed population decreased only in 3 of the 13 northern regions and remained at the 2002 level in 3 regions. In 2010–2021, this indicator already decreased in seven constituent entities and remained at the 2010 level in three regions. The total loss of educational potential of human resources amounted to 4.1 million person years of education. To remedy the educational potential in 2020 prices, more than 600 billion roubles of budgetary funds would be needed. The occurred transformations are clearly demonstrated by sex-age-educational pyramids. The study showed that negative demographic trends in the Russian North almost cannot be reduced by improving qualitative characteristics. The findings can be applied to develop demographic, social and labour policies, and to construct demographic forecasts.

Interregional Migration Links of the Regions of the Russian Arctic

2023-10-13T10:16:05+05:00

To understand current and predict future migration, it is necessary to consider historical trends in migration connectivity of important Arctic regions with other constituent entities of Russia. The article aims to examine migration links between the Arctic and other regions using data from the All-Russian population censuses and statistics on interregional migration of the Federal State Statistics Service for 2007–2010 and 2017–2021. The conducted analysis revealed a decrease in migration mobility of the population, especially in the Russian Arctic. Eight out of nine Arctic regions are characterised by a negative net migration. To describe population localisation, a three-component model was proposed: centres of gravity, regions with independence of mutual localisation, and regions with normal localisation. This model is valid for all Russian regions; additionally, there is a direct connection between in – and out-migration. Analysis of the variation of localisation coefficients showed that migration flows from the Arctic regions have already formed, and incoming flows are more dynamic. The paper proposed a new approach to measuring the stability of migration flows over time based on assessing the coefficient of variation. The regions of the Russian Arctic were classified according to the stability of migration flows: regions with stable migration flows, with mobile migration flows and with unstable migration flows. Statistical analysis of such stability confirmed their stabilisation during the studied period. A hypothesis about the influence of the remoteness of regions on the stability of migration flows was tested, the dependence was observed only within 2 thousand kilometres between regional capitals. The findings present trends of lifelong and long-term migration between the Arctic and other Russian regions and outline the main strategic management directions in the field of interregional migration.