2072-64142411-140610.17059/ekon.reg.2023-3-23Determinants of Regional Disparities in Housing Prices: A Spatial Analysis of German RegionsФакторы, определяющие региональные различия цен на жилье: пространственный анализ регионов Германииhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2527-7527Semerikova Elena V. СемериковаЕлена Вячеславовна esemerikova@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9813-6747Blokhina Anastasia O. Блохина Анастасия Олеговна anastasia.blokhina@student.hu-berlin.deNastansky AndreasНастанский Андреас andreas.nastansky@hwr-berlin.deHSE UniversityНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»Humboldt University of BerlinБерлинский университет имени ГумбольдтаVattenfall GmbHVattenfall GmbHBerlin School of Economics and LawБерлинская высшая школа экономики и права193919933Copyright © 2023 Elena V. Semerikova, Anastasia O. Blokhina, Andreas NastanskyCopyright © 2023 Елена Вячеславовна Семерикова, Анастасия Олеговна Блохина, Андреас Настанский2023Elena V. Semerikova, Anastasia O. Blokhina, Andreas NastanskyЕлена Вячеславовна Семерикова, Анастасия Олеговна Блохина, Андреас НастанскийCC BY 4.0https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/691https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/691/243

Germany is characterised by heterogeneous regional development in various economic spheres, including housing markets. Differences in housing prices persist during decades, causing undesirable inequality, affecting migration and employment patterns. The purpose of this work is to identify regional factors which affect regional housing prices in Germany. The peculiarity of the study is the consideration of the spatial location of regions for analysing the influence of the characteristics of neighbouring regions. Based on data from 397 German regions for 2004-2019, spatial econometric panel data models are built, which consider both selling and rental prices. The following factors that affect demand in the housing market are used as determinants of housing prices: the unemployment rate, the balance of pendulum migration at the place of work and living, the share of employment, wages, the number of employees, gross regional product. The analysis findings revealed that factors that raise income for the population trigger an upsurge in demand and prices for housing. Conversely, opposite effects result in a decline in prices due to a decrease in demand. Moreover, it was verified that neighbouring regions mutually affect housing markets through pendulum migration and the creation of economic clusters with similar living standards and prices. Furthermore, changes in labour market metrics are crucial; unemployment, wages, and the number of workers in nearby regions have a significant influence on real estate prices in the area under examination. The study’s practical importance lies in the possibility of using its outcomes to develop regional and migration policies.

Неоднородность развития регионов Германии проявляется в различных отраслях экономики, включая рынок недвижимости. Различия в ценах на жилье привели к возникновению неравенства в структуре миграции и занятости. Цель работы — выявить региональные факторы, которые влияют на цены на жилье в Германии. Особенностью исследования является рассмотрение пространственного расположения регионов для анализа влияния на них характеристик соседних регионов. На основе панельных данных по 397 регионам Германии за период 2004-2019 гг. построены пространственные эконометрические модели, учитывающие как цены на продажу, так и цены на аренду жилья. В качестве факторов, определяющих цены на жилье, используются показатели спроса на рынке недвижимости: уровень безработицы, сальдо маятниковой миграции по месту работы и жительства, доля занятых, заработная плата, число сотрудников, валовой региональный продукт. Результаты анализа показали, что факторы, способствующие повышению доходов населения, вызывают рост спроса и цен на жилье. Противоположные эффекты приводят к снижению цен из-за уменьшения спроса. Кроме того, было подтверждено взаимное влияние соседних регионов на рынки жилья посредством маятниковой миграции и создания экономических кластеров, характеризующихся сходным уровнем жизни и ценами. Такие показатели рынка труда, как безработица, заработная плата и количество сотрудников в близлежащих регионах, оказывают существенное влияние на цены на недвижимость. Полученные выводы могут быть использованы на практике для разработки региональной и миграционной политики.

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