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<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Archiving and Interchange DTD v1.4 20241031//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/archiving/1.4/JATS-archive-oasis-article1-4-mathml3.dtd">
<article xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" article-type="research-article" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><issn publication-format="print">2072-6414</issn><issn publication-format="electronic">2411-1406</issn></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-3-21</article-id><title-group xml:lang="en"><article-title>Regional Inflation Analysis Using Social Network Data</article-title></title-group><title-group xml:lang="ru"><article-title>Анализ региональной инфляции с использованием данных  социальных сетей</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5132-7423</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Shcherbakov </surname><given-names>Vassiliy S. </given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Щербаков</surname><given-names>Василий Сергеевич </given-names></name></name-alternatives><email>shcherbakovvs@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8106-9426</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Karpov </surname><given-names>Ilia A. Karpov </given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Карпов </surname><given-names>Илья Андреевич </given-names></name></name-alternatives><email>karpovilia@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff1"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">Omsk Regional Division of the Siberian Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Отделение по Омской области Сибирского главного управления Центрального банка Российской Федерации</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff2"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">HSE University</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2024-09-30" publication-format="electronic"/><volume>20</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>930</fpage><lpage>946</lpage><history><date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2023-05-14"/><date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2024-06-20"/></history><permissions><copyright-statement xml:lang="en">Copyright © 2024 Vassiliy S. Shcherbakov, Ilia A. Karpov</copyright-statement><copyright-statement xml:lang="ru">Copyright © 2024 Василий Сергеевич Щербаков, Илья Андреевич Карпов</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2024</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Vassiliy S. Shcherbakov, Ilia A. Karpov</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Василий Сергеевич Щербаков, Илья Андреевич Карпов</copyright-holder><ali:free_to_read/><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>CC BY 4.0</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri content-type="html" mimetype="text/html" xlink:title="article webpage" xlink:href="https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/575">https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/575</self-uri><self-uri content-type="pdf" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:title="article pdf" xlink:href="https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/575/344">https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/575/344</self-uri><abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Inflation is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators that have a great impact on the population of any country and region. Inflation is influenced by a range of factors, including inflation expectations. Many central banks take this factor into consideration while implementing monetary policy within the inflation targeting regime. Nowadays, a lot of people are active users of the Internet, especially social networks. It is hypothesised that people search, read, and discuss mainly only those issues that are of particular interest to them. It is logical to assume that the dynamics of prices may also be in the focus of users’ discussions. So, such discussions could be regarded as an alternative source of more rapid information about inflation expectations. This study is based on unstructured data from VKontakte social network used to analyse upward and downward inflationary trends (on the example of the Omsk region). The sample of more than 8.5 million posts was collected between January 2010 and May 2022. The authors used BERT neural networks to solve the problem. These models demonstrated better results than the benchmarks (e.g., logistic regression, decision tree classifier, etc.). It makes possible to define pro-inflationary and disinflationary types of keywords in different contexts and get their visualisation with SHAP method. This analysis provides additional operational information about inflationary processes at the regional level The proposed approach can be scaled for other regions. At the same time, the limitation of the work is the time and power costs for the initial training of similar models for all regions of Russia.</p></abstract><abstract xml:lang="ru"><p>Инфляция как один из важнейших макроэкономических показателей оказывает большое влияние на население всех стран и регионов. На саму инфляцию влияет ряд факторов, в том числе инфляционные ожидания. Многие центральные банки учитывают этот фактор при реализации денежно-кредитной политики в режиме инфляционного таргетирования. В настоящее время многие люди являются активными пользователями интернета, особенно социальных сетей. Предполагается, что люди ищут, читают и обсуждают в основном только те темы, которые представляют для них особый интерес. Логично предположить, что динамика цен также может быть в фокусе обсуждений пользователей. Такие обсуждения можно рассматривать как альтернативный источник оперативной информации об инфляционных ожиданиях. В данной статье анализируются неструктурированные данные из социальной сети ВКонтакте для исследования восходящих и нисходящих трендов инфляции (на примере Омской области). Выборка из более чем 8,5 миллионов постов была собрана за период с января 2010 по май 2022 гг. Для решения задачи была использована нейронная сеть BERT, кото­-рая показала лучшие результаты по сравнению с бенчмарками (такими как логистическая регрессия, классификатор дерева решений и т. д.). Применение BERT-модели позволило определить проинфляционные и дезинфляционные типы ключевых слов в разных контекстах; метод SHAP позволил визуализировать полученные результаты. Подобный анализ дает дополнительную оперативную информацию об инфляционных процессах на региональном уровне. Предложенный подход может быть масштабирован для других регионов. При этом ограничением работы являются временные и энергетические затраты на первоначальное обучение аналогичных моделей для всех регионов России.</p></abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>inflation, regional inflation expectations, machine learning, BERT, social networks, monetary policy, neural network</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>инфляция, региональные инфляционные ожидания, машинное обучение, BERT, социальные сети, денежно-кредитная политика, нейронная сеть</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><body/><back><ack xml:lang="en"><p>The article was prepared within the framework of the HSE University Basic Research Program.</p></ack><ack xml:lang="ru"><p>Статья выполнена в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ.</p></ack><ref-list><ref id="en-ref1"><label>1</label><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ahmed, H., Traore, I., &amp; Saad, S. (2017). Detecting opinion spams and fake news using text classification.  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