2072-64142411-140610.17059/ekon.reg.2023-3-15Typology of the Transformation of the Age Structure in Russian RegionsТипология трансформации возрастной структуры населения регионов Россииhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1370-8724Sekitski-PavlenkoОlga O. Секицки-ПавленкоОльга Олеговнаsekitski.pavlenko.oo@uiec.ruInstitute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RASИнститут экономики УрО РАН193813827Copyright © 2023 Оlga O. Sekitski-PavlenkoCopyright © 2023 Ольга Олеговна Секицки-Павленко2023Оlga O. Sekitski-PavlenkoОльга Олеговна Секицки-ПавленкоCC BY 4.0https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/545https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/545/234

Assessment of changes in the age structure in Russia is relevant due to the increasing ageing of the population and implementation of demographic policy measures. The study aims to develop a typology of the transformation of the age structure in Russian regions. It is hypothesised that differences in the speed and direction of transformation cause the formation of various types and subtypes of age structure. Official data of the Federal State Statistics Service were analysed: “Demographic Yearbook of Russia”; “Supplement to the Demographic Yearbook of Russia”; statistical bulletins “Population of the Russian Federation by sex and age”. As a result, Russian regions were grouped based on 6 types and 18 subtypes of the transformation of the age structure. Calculation of the ageing index revealed the following 6 types of age structure: very young, young, on the eve of old age, moderately old, old, and very old. The most common are regions with moderately old age structure (38.1 %), followed by regions with old age structure (25 %) and very old age structure (19 %). Regions classified as “on the eve of old age”, “young” and “very young” together account for no more than 18 %. The ageing dynamics index was calculated to identify 18 subtypes of the transformation of the age structure. The ageing trend is observed in 80 Russian regions: slow ageing of the population is recorded in 52 constituent entities, and increased ageing — in 28 regions. The rejuvenation trend is characteristic only for 4 regions: the Republic of Tuva, Moscow oblast, Saint Petersburg and the Republic of Crimea. The obtained results can be used by public authorities to improve regional demographic policy.

Усиление процесса демографического старения и проводимая государством демографическая политика актуализируют необходимость оценки изменений в возрастной структуре населения. Цель исследования — разработать типологию трансформации возрастной структуры населения российских регионов. Гипотеза исследования — предположение, что скорость и направленность трансформации обуславливают формирование различных типов и подтипов возрастной структуры. Предлагаемый методический инструментарий, сочетающий индекс старения и индекс динамики старения, позволяет оценить количественную и качественную стороны изменений. Временной лаг охватывает период с 2002 г. по 2022 г. Эмпирическую базу составили официальные данные Росстата («Демографический ежегодник России» «Приложение к Демографическому ежегоднику России» и статистический бюллетень «Численность населения Российской Федерации по полу и возрасту»). Итогом апробации стала группировка регионов России по 6 типам и 18 подтипам трансформации возрастной структуры населения. На основе расчета индекса старения выделено 6 типов возрастной структуры: «очень молодая», «молодая», «в преддверии старости», «умеренно старая», «старая» и «очень старая». Самый распространенный тип — с «умеренно старой возрастной структурой» (38,1 % всех регионов), за ним следует тип со «старой возрастной структурой» (25 %), далее тип «с очень старой возрастной структурой» (19 %). Регионы с типом возрастной структуры «в преддверии старости» с «молодой» и с «очень молодой возрастной структурой» в совокупности составляют не более 18 %. На базе расчета индекса динамики старения выделено 18 подтипов трансформации возрастной структуры. В 80 регионах России отмечается тенденция старения населения, причем в 52 из них — «тенденция медленного старения», а в 28 «тенденция усиленного старения». К подтипу возрастной структуры с «тенденцией омоложения» отнесены Республика Тыва, Московская область, г. Санкт-Петербург и Республика Крым. Практическая значимость определяется возможностью использования результатов в целях совершенствования региональной демографической политики.

transformation of the age structurepopulation ageingpopulation rejuvenationageing indexaging dynamics indextypology of regionsdirection of transformationspeed of transformationтрансформация возрастной структурыстарение населенияомоложение населенияиндекс старенияиндекс динамики старениятипология регионовнаправленность трансформациискорость трансформации

The article has been prepared in accordance with the research plan of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS for 2021-2023.

Статья подготовлена в рамках НИР по госзаданию Института экономики УрО РАН на 2021–2023 гг.

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Lisse: Zwets and Zeitlinger.