2072-64142411-140610.17059/ekon.reg.2023-3-1Inclusive Growth and Structural Transformation: The Role of Innovation and Digitalisation SpilloverИнклюзивный рост и структурная трансформация: роль распространения инноваций и цифровизацииhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3204-0595MammanSuleiman O.Мамман Сулейман О.onimisism@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0976-2357SohagKaziСохагКази ksokhag@urfu.ruUral Federal UniversityУральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б. Н. Ельцина193598611Copyright © 2023 Suleiman O. Mamman, Kazi SohagCopyright © 2023 Сулейман О. Мамман, Кази Сохаг2023Suleiman O. Mamman, Kazi SohagСулейман О. Мамман, Кази СохагCC BY 4.0https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/view/390https://www.economyofregions.org/ojs/index.php/er/article/download/390/218

Structural transformation is a compelling measure of economic progress as it shifts from less productive to more productive sectors, spurred by technological improvement and digitalisation. Despite the benefits of structural transformation in fostering economic growth, it has been contended that it will exacerbate income inequality. Given the critical role of digitalisation over the years in Africa, the current study investigates the pattern and impact of structural transformation on inclusive growth. To accomplish this, we utilised both absolute (poverty) and relative (income inequality) measures of pro-poor growth for all African countries. Using quantiles via moments panel model, we showed that the structural transformation from agriculture to services reduced the incidence of poverty (extreme poverty) while increasing inequality (Gini coefficient). On the other hand, manufacturing had no significant effect on poverty or inequality, indicating the region’s slow pace of industrialisation. Using income share measures, we found evidence of inequality across and within sectors, particularly in the services sector. Finally, we observed that digitalisation and technological processes significantly reduced the incidence of extreme poverty and inequality. Hence, the study recommends that Africa capitalise on its comparative advantage in the agricultural sector by establishing investment and manufacturing zones to develop the industrial sector. Furthermore, gains in the manufacturing sector could be realised through a concerted effort to improve the industrialisation process.

Структурная трансформация – важный показатель экономического прогресса, отражающий перераспределение активности от менее к более продуктивным секторам под влиянием новых технологий и цифровизации. Способствуя экономическому росту, структурные преобразования также могут привести к увеличению неравенства доходов. Учитывая ключевую роль цифровизации в развитии Африки, авторы исследуют закономерности и влияние структурных трансформаций на инклюзивный рост в странах континента. Для этого были использованы как абсолютные (бедность), так и относительные (неравенство доходов) показатели роста во всех африканских странах в интересах бедных слоев населения. Использование квантилей в панельной модели, построенной с помощью метода моментов, показало, что структурный переход от сельского хозяйства к сфере услуг приводит к снижению уровня бедности (крайняя бедность) при одновременном увеличении неравенства (коэффициент Джини). С другой стороны, отсутствие существенного влияния производства на бедность свидетельствует о медленных темпах индустриализации в регионе. Анализ доли доходов подтвердил существование неравенства как между секторами, так и внутри них, особенно в сфере услуг. Наконец, проведенное исследование показало, что распространение технологий и цифровизации значительно снизило масштабы крайней бедности и неравенства. Согласно полученным результатам, странам Африки необходимо использовать сравнительные преимущества в сельском хозяйстве и создать инвестиционные и производственные зоны для поддержки промышленности. Кроме того, достижению успехов в производственном секторе может способствовать разработка совместных мер по усилению индустриализации.

inclusive growth, poverty, income inequality, structural change, digitalisation, technological progress, welfare, African region, panel data, industrialisation, economic developmentинклюзивный рост, бедность, неравенство доходов, структурные трансформации, цифровизация, технический прогресс, благосостояние, Африканский регион, панельные данные, индустриализация, экономическое развитие

The article has been prepared with the support of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Ural Federal University Program of Development within the Priority-2030 Program).

Исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке Министерства науки и высшего образования Российской Федерации в рамках Программы развития Уральского федерального университета имени первого Президента России Б. Н. Ельцина в соответствии с программой стратегического академического лидерства «Приоритет-2030».

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Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute, 33.Saha, A. & Ciarli, T. (2018). Innovation, structural change, and inclusion. A cross country PVAR analysis. SWPS 2018-01, 62. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3107748Senbet, L. W. & Simbanegavi, W. (2017). Agriculture and structural transformation in Africa: An overview. Journal of African Economies, 26, i3-i10. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejx012Syrquin, M. (1988). Patterns of structural change. Handbook of Development Economics, 1, 203–273. DOI: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4471(88)01010-1Tyrowicz, J. & Smyk, M. (2019). Wage Inequality and Structural Change. Social Indicators Research, 141(2), 503–538. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-1846-yWilliams, D. R. (1991). Structural Change and the Aggregate Poverty Rate. Demography, 28(2), 323-332. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2061283Zulkhibri, M., Naiya, I. & Ghazal, R. (2015). Structural change and economic growth in selected emerging economies. International Journal of Development Issues, 14(2), 98–116. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDI-09-2014-0064Aizenman, J., Lee, M. & Park, D. (2012). The Relationship between Structural Change and Inequality: A Conceptual Overview with Special Reference to Developing Asia. ADBI Working Paper No. 396, 24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2175383Baymul, C. & Sen, K. (2020). Was Kuznets Right? New Evidence on the Relationship between Structural Transformation and Inequality. Journal of Development Studies, 56(9), 1643-1662. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2019.1702161Busse, M., Erdogan, C. & Mühlen, H. (2019). Structural transformation and its relevance for economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Review of Development Economics, 23(1), 33–53.Chatterjee, S. (1995). Growth, structural change and optimal poverty interventions. Occasional Papers - Asian Development Bank, Economics and Development Resource Center, No. 13, 28.Chenery, H. B. (1960). Patterns of Industrial Growth. The American economic review, 50(4), 624-654.Clark, C. W. (1960). The Conditions of Economic Progress (3rd ed.). New York: Macmillan, 754.Dasgupta, S. & Singh, A. (2005). Will services be the new engine of Indian economic growth? Development and Change, 36(6), 1035-1057. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0012-155X.2005.00449.xDastidar, A. G. (2004). Structural Change and Income Distribution in Developing Economies: Evidence from a Group of Asian and Latin American Countries. Working papers 121, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics, 42de Vries, G., Timmer, M. & de Vries, K. (2015). Structural Transformation in Africa: Static Gains, Dynamic Losses. Journal of Development Studies, 51(6), 674-688. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2014.997222Di Meglio, G., Gallego, J., Maroto, A. & Savona, M. (2018). Services in Developing Economies: The Deindustrialization Debate in Perspective. Development and Change, 49(6), 1495-1525. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12444Ghani, E. & O’Connell, S. D. (2017). Can services be a growth escalator in low-income countries? Policy Research Working Paper No. 6971. World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 23.Herrendorf, B., Rogerson, R. & Valentinyi, Á. (2014). Growth and Structural Transformation. Handbook of Economic Growth, 2, 855-941. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53540-5.00006-9Kanbur, R. (2012). Does Kuznets still matter? Working Papers 128794, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management, 15Kohnert, D. (2021). The impact of digitalization on poverty alleviation in Africa. SSRN Electronic Journal, 18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3944941Kuznets, S. (1966). Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure, and Spread. New Haven. Yale University Press, xvii, 529.Lazear, E. P. & Rosen, S. (1981). Rank-order tournaments as optimum labor contracts. Journal of Political Economy, 89(5), 841–864.Leipziger, D. & Dodev, V. (2016). Disruptive Technologies and their Implications for Economic Policy: Some Preliminary Observations. Institute for International Economic Policy Working Paper Series, No. 13, 31.Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School, 22, 139-191. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.xMachado, J. A. F. & Santos Silva, J. M. C. (2019). Quantiles via moments. Journal of Econometrics, 213(1), 145-173. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.04.009Mesa Salamanca, C. A. & Zuleta Gonzalez, H. (2021). Structural Change and Inequality. Theoretical Economics Letters, 11(3), 391–403. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2021.113026Milanovic, C. (1997). Income, inequality, and poverty during the transition from planned to market economy. Washington, DC: World Bank. 237. Norbu, N. P., Tateno, Y. & Bolesta, A. (2021). Structural transformation and production linkages in Asia-Pacific least developed countries: An input-output analysis. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 59, 510-524. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.09.009Timmer, C. P., McMillan, M. S., Badiane, O., Rodrik, D., Wouterse, F. S. & Binswanger-Mkhize, H. (2012). Pattern of Growth and Structural Transformation in Africa: Trends and Lessons for Future Development. West and Central Africa Office Thematic Research Note, 2, 13Pi, J. & Zhang, P. (2017). Social conflict and wage inequality. Journal of Economics/ Zeitschrift Fur Nationalokonomie, 121(1), 29-49. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00712-016-0515-3Pigato, M. (2001). Information and communication technology, poverty, and development in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Washington, DC: World Bank, 67.Rodrik, D. & McMillan, M. (2011). Globalization, structural change and productivity growth. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 17143, 32Roy, R. P. & Roy, S. S. (2017). Structural Change, Trade, and Inequality: Some Cross-Country Evidence. ADBI Working Paper, No. 763. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute, 33.Saha, A. & Ciarli, T. (2018). Innovation, structural change, and inclusion. A cross country PVAR analysis. SWPS 2018-01, 62. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3107748Senbet, L. W. & Simbanegavi, W. (2017). Agriculture and structural transformation in Africa: An overview. Journal of African Economies, 26, i3-i10. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejx012Syrquin, M. (1988). Patterns of structural change. Handbook of Development Economics, 1, 203–273. DOI: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4471(88)01010-1Tyrowicz, J. & Smyk, M. (2019). Wage Inequality and Structural Change. Social Indicators Research, 141(2), 503–538. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-1846-yWilliams, D. R. (1991). Structural Change and the Aggregate Poverty Rate. Demography, 28(2), 323-332. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2061283Zulkhibri, M., Naiya, I. & Ghazal, R. (2015). Structural change and economic growth in selected emerging economies. International Journal of Development Issues, 14(2), 98–116. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDI-09-2014-0064